FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich

With 23 percent of the expected vote reporting in the New York 23rd special election, Democrat Max Della Pia leads Republican Joseph Sempolinski 56 percent to 44 percent. However, again, most of the votes reporting right now are mail-in ballots; expect that margin to move hard toward Republicans later in the evening. This is, after all, an R+15 seat.


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