Sarah, I accept that Florida is inelastic and doesn’t do blow outs, but I think there’s also good evidence that DeSantis is a fairly popular governor. His approval rating was in the mid-50s earlier this year and he’s still viewed favorably by a majority of Floridians. Keeping the state open during the COVID-19 pandemic and the booming economy that followed was ultimately popular. He has a massive, massive amount of money — $130 million — that he can use to get his message across. On top of that, Democrats’ worsening showing with Latino voters is particularly acute in the Sunshine State, and while the electorate this fall will be whiter and more educated that the state’s population, the most recent movement in the Florida electorate just isn’t good for Democrats.
