Sarah, I’m the rare Florida believer. I think the gubernatorial race is actually going to be quite a bit closer this fall than a lot of folks are expecting. Florida is such an evenly divided and inelastic state — it doesn’t do blowouts like other places. In 2010 and 2014, great years for the GOP, Republicans won the Florida gubernatorial race by just 1 percentage point, and in 2018, a great Democratic year, the GOP candidate (DeSantis) won by less than 1 point. DeSantis has become a national figure, so the winner of the Democratic primary tonight will be able to leverage that into massive fundraising and attention over the rest of the race.
