FiveThirtyEight’s New Hampshire Diary

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BEDFORD — I just left a Chris Christie event here, and it wasn’t difficult to see why Christie was once seen as a major contender for the Republican nomination. He spoke with power and conviction, and he shared the stage with two fellow blue state governors, Charlie Baker of Massachusetts and Larry Hogan of Maryland. While Christie probably always had little chance of winning the nomination — his candidacy has some fundamental flaws — he had a shot of doing decently here in New Hampshire. Now, of the more moderate New Hampshire-centric candidates, Christie is running third, behind both Jeb Bush and John Kasich. What happened? One can’t help but think Christie (who was polling first among Bush and Kasich at the beginning of January) “peaked” too early. He faced an ad onslaught, and as a result, his campaign may be over in roughly 72 hours.