FiveThirtyEight’s New Hampshire Diary

HOLLIS — We just pulled into the Lawrence Barn Community Center, a bucolic red A-frame that looks idyllic in a fresh blanket of snow. John Kasich will be holding a town hall here shortly. The first thing I noticed when I walked in was a prominent ticker counting up the national debt in real time (or at least purporting to), down to the dollar.

I found it somewhat surprising since, as my colleague Andrew Flowers has written, talk of the federal debt and the deficit among Republicans has fallen out of favor — pretty markedly — since the last election cycle. Part of the reason, according to an economist Andrew talked to, is that it’s harder for candidates to get away with describing their tax plans as deficit-neutral, as Romney did four years ago. Other possible explanations are that the public just doesn’t care as much about federal debt these days, and that debt has leveled off in Obama’s second term.

MANCHESTER — Clare saw Donald Trump yesterday (see below), but I only arrived today, and I was planning to see Trump at a scheduled event in Londonderry this afternoon. There’s just one problem: Trump canceled the event because he says the snow left him stranded in New York. It’s true that it’s snowing a lot in Manchester and Boston and was moderately snowing in New York, but a truly determined candidate could have made it to New Hampshire. For one thing, the snow was forecast since at least yesterday, so Trump could have left New York earlier. I would know: Despite a bout of food poisoning, I dragged myself off the floor of my apartment and onto the last flight leaving from Newark last night to ensure I would be in the state today. (Although maybe I’m just still sick and a little cranky.) Moreover, it’s not like Trump doesn’t have other travel options. He could have flown into Lebanon, New Hampshire, which is just an hour and a half from Londonderry and where no snow is currently falling. Trump could have also driven from New York to Londonderry, which is right now a four-and-a-half-hour trip. The bottom line: A person who really wanted to be in Londonderry could have gotten there, even with the snow.