FiveThirtyEight’s New Hampshire Diary

MANCHESTER — Clare saw Donald Trump yesterday (see below), but I only arrived today, and I was planning to see Trump at a scheduled event in Londonderry this afternoon. There’s just one problem: Trump canceled the event because he says the snow left him stranded in New York. It’s true that it’s snowing a lot in Manchester and Boston and was moderately snowing in New York, but a truly determined candidate could have made it to New Hampshire. For one thing, the snow was forecast since at least yesterday, so Trump could have left New York earlier. I would know: Despite a bout of food poisoning, I dragged myself off the floor of my apartment and onto the last flight leaving from Newark last night to ensure I would be in the state today. (Although maybe I’m just still sick and a little cranky.) Moreover, it’s not like Trump doesn’t have other travel options. He could have flown into Lebanon, New Hampshire, which is just an hour and a half from Londonderry and where no snow is currently falling. Trump could have also driven from New York to Londonderry, which is right now a four-and-a-half-hour trip. The bottom line: A person who really wanted to be in Londonderry could have gotten there, even with the snow.

While today looks like a Norman Rockwell Christmas card in New Hampshire — believe me, we’re going to be posting a lot of snow pics, sue us — yesterday was the kind of balmy-for-February day that New Englanders break out the Nantucket shorts for. In Exeter, locals were out in droves not just to take advantage of the unseasonably warm weather, but to catch a glimpse of Donald J. Trump, who was speaking at their collonaded town hall. A local cop said there were 700 people inside, and many had been turned away at the door. Outside it was bustling, a road dividing the Trump supporters from his vocal protesters — some perhaps smelling weakness after his second-place Iowa finish and others out to show they were standing by their man. Near the town hall steps, Ruth Albert, a 65-year-old retired postal worker from nearby Kingston, said she admired Trump because “he’s a businessman that knows how to handle numbers and figures.” A descendant of Josiah Bartlett, a signer of the Declaration of Independence (she lives in the family’s ancestral home), Albert pointed to Trump’s immigration policy as another reason she was attracted to the presidential candidate. “Why should people sneak in?” she said.

Across the road from the town hall and behind barriers, a row of protesters had set up shop, including about 20 or so students from nearby Phillips Exeter Academy. Rachel Johnson, 16, a boarding student from Nashville, Tennessee, was wearing a pink sweatshirt with “Feminist” splayed across the front. She said that the things Trump said about women turned her off, “especially the things he says about his daughter.”

Larry and Barbara Koff of Brookline, Massachusetts, were a few feet away, having driven the hour or so from home to stand underneath a effigy of Trump made out of, among other things, a trash can and a toilet seat for a mouth. “We built this and were waiting for Trump to show up,” said Larry, a 73-year-old retired city planner. “People like it, it’s humorous so they don’t get too ticked.” Barbara, 72, a retired Boston University professor, gave him a skeptical look. “Well … someone in Nashua told us to get out of his country,” Larry acceded. The Koffs were not the only people to make an out-of-state trip to see Trump. Tito Media, 73, originally of El Paso, Texas, has been following the New York businessman to his rallies, selling sundry Trump souvenirs. “They buy ’em,” he said of the masses. “You know, posterity — they’ve got grandkids.” He says he splits his proceeds “one-third, one-third, one-third” — for the campaign, for supplies and for his own efforts. When the town hall finally let out, people with “Don’t believe the Liberal media!” posters streamed down the steps. The crowds outside were only granted a glimpse of Trump, who gave a quick wave before ducking into his SUV. “Worth the five hours,” a woman muttered. But Rich Tuite, a heating and AC tech from Kingston, had been inside and seemed exhilarated by the whole experience: “Thrilling,” he said, as the candidate’s motorcade swooshed by.

MANCHESTER — The FiveThirtyEight politics team is in New Hampshire! Nate Silver, Harry Enten, Clare Malone, Ritchie King, Jody Avirgan and yours truly will be bringing you analysis, photos, audio and video from the epicenter of the political universe for the next few days. Hopefully, you’ll feel like you’re in New Hampshire yourself, just without the necessity of busting out your snow boots.

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