What Went Down During The Final Primary Night Of 2022

Jacob, Huff Brown, of course, is the wife of former Republican Sen. Scott Brown of Massachusetts, who won a famous special election in 2010 for the seat previously held by longtime Democratic Sen. Ted Kennedy. Brown lost reelection in 2012 to now-Sen. Elizabeth Warren, but in 2014, he decided to mount a comeback in New Hampshire, where his family owned a summer home. He ran against Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, but Brown met defeat despite the otherwise rip-roaring cycle for Republicans, who flipped nine seats and took over the Senate. That was the last time a Democratic incumbent senator was on the ballot in a midterm in New Hampshire. Hassan hopes to repeat Shaheen’s success.

Rhode Island governor is a NINE-VOTE RACE right now.

And just like that, ABC News is projecting that Magaziner has won the Democratic nomination in Rhode Island’s 2nd District. This district is solidly Democratic with a FiveThirtyEight partisan lean of D+16, but it is actually looking competitive this year: Republicans have nominated Allan Fung, the popular former mayor of Cranston.

Yeah, Meredith, I found that split interesting. Leavitt, of course, is supported by Rep. Elise Stefanik, who controls Elevate PAC. That’s put her at odds with not only VIEW PAC but also House GOP leaders like Kevin McCarthy.

About half of the expected vote is also reporting in the Democratic primary for Rhode Island’s 2nd District, and Magaziner has a strong lead. Local news station WPRI has already called the race for him, although ABC News has yet to make a projection.

With 46 percent of the expected vote already reporting, Foulkes has a very narrow lead over McKee in the Democratic primary for Rhode Island governor, with Gorbea not far behind, either. McKee is trying to avoid becoming only the seventh sitting governor to lose a primary this century.

As I mentioned earlier on the blog, in New Hampshire’s 1st District GOP race, Leavitt and Huff Brown both have support from women’s groups whose missions are to increase the representation of women within their caucus — Leavitt is backed by Elevate PAC, and Huff Brown by VIEW PAC. Splitting endorsements between women running in the same primary isn’t the most strategic way to elect more women, though. But Republican women aren’t a monolith and and clearly Elevate and VIEW have a different vision of the future of their party.

To help their chances of winning, Sarah. That’s clear enough. In the case of the Michigan 3rd District example, you saw ratings outlets (including Jacob’s Inside Elections) move their ratings for that purplish seat slightly in the Democrats’ direction following Gibbs’s victory over Meijer. However, the million-dollar question is whether the seeming slight improvement in the probability of winning a handful of seats is worth trying to help candidates who back Trump’s false claim that the 2020 election was stolen. I’m dubious it is because it’s going to be hard to hold onto the House — Senate’s a different story — even with some weak GOP candidates on the ballot. I think Democrats are playing an old game — which has a term I’ll not print here — without taking into account the danger of potentially helping send some of these problematic candidates to Congress.

Sarah, the simple answer is that Democrats are betting that less qualified or more extreme candidates will frighten off moderate Republicans — such as a group I’m always watching: suburban white women. Reporting suggests McConnell is unhappy with some of the quality of these candidates, because Republicans were hoping to woo some of these voters back, although now they also have the fallout from Dobbs to deal with.

Sarah, I think, in the case of Morse, the ads they’re running against him they could easily run against him in a general election, too. They mainly attack him for being a puppet of Mitch McConnell, which is a message most voters can get behind. So it really becomes a win-win for them: Either the ads drag Morse down in the primary and they get an opponent they perceive as weaker, or Morse still wins and they’ve gotten a head start on attacking him before Election Day.

Chris Sununu has won the New Hampshire primary for governor! That was no surprise, of course, as the three-term incumbent is quite popular. But some Republicans were hoping he would be celebrating a win in the New Hampshire primary for senator tonight, as he was D.C.’s first choice to take on Hassan. Alas, he declined to run, and now the GOP is in danger of nominating a far-right candidate who will likely lose in November.

We’ve got some votes in New Hampshire’s 1st District, and it’s a close one! Karoline Leavitt, a former Trump assistant press secretary, is out front, with 32 percent, while 2020 1st District GOP nominee Matt Mowers is right behind, with 29 percent. Former newscaster Gail Huff Brown is further back, with 17 percent.

Sarah, they’re doing it because candidates like Bolduc and Burns, who are polarizing, bomb-throwing conservatives, are likely less appealing to a general-election audience, so it’ll make Democrats’ lives easier in November. But of course, it’s not impossible that Bolduc and Burns would win the general election anyway, and then Democrats will have helped some pretty uncompromising conservatives attain power.

The Washington Post published a piece on Monday that found that “Democrats have spent nearly $19 million across eight states in primaries this year amplifying far-right Republican candidates who have questioned or denied the validity of the 2020 election.” This Democratic meddling in GOP primaries is, of course, something we’ve covered, too, at FiveThirtyEight in our primary previews, but $19 million … that’s a lot, right?

The Ocean State has a couple of interesting Democratic primaries on tap this evening. First, the race for governor features Democratic Gov. Dan McKee, who is seeking a full term after succeeding to the office as lieutenant governor when then-Gov. Gina Raimondo accepted an appointment to Biden’s Cabinet last year. But McKee is far from certain to win. He faces a stern pair of challengers in Rhode Island Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea and former CVS Health executive Helena Foulkes.

McKee’s vulnerability stems from him having one of the worst approval ratings of any governor in the country and from an ongoing federal investigation into whether his administration improperly awarded a multimillion-dollar contract to a firm connected to a longtime McKee ally. Gorbea is hoping her experience in housing development and running Rhode Island’s elections will give her the upper hand, while Foulkes is banking on her outsider message and edge in campaign spending. The winner will enter the general election as a favorite in strongly Democratic-leaning Rhode Island, with health-care executive Ashley Kalus looking to be the likely GOP nominee.

The state also has a contest in the 2nd District, which that could be surprisingly competitive in the fall despite the district’s D+16 partisan lean. Longtime Democratic Rep. Jim Langevin decided to retire, and Rhode Island General Treasurer Seth Magaziner looks favored to win the Democratic nod, although he has to fend off former Commerce Department lawyer Sarah Morgenthau. Magaziner has built up a big fundraising advantage and has Langevin’s endorsement, but Morgenthau is hoping her focus on abortion rights in the wake of the Dobbs decision will help her spring an upset. Awaiting the winner is former Cranston Mayor Allan Fung, who hopes to give Republicans a real shot at flipping this seat.

Sarah, I think Graham is attempting to help the GOP go on offense over abortion, after months of taking a shellacking from Democrats. There’s some polling to suggest that, although most Americans generally favor abortion rights, they also are open to restrictions after a certain period. So Graham is trying to reframe the issue in a way that’s less favorable to Democrats than a simple “abortion: yes or no,” which we’ve seen doesn’t win even in Kansas. However, a recent Wall Street Journal poll found a majority of Americans even disfavored a ban on abortion starting at 15 weeks, with exceptions for the life of the mother. In other words, the Dobbs decision could have changed the underlying opinions of the electorate more than Graham has bargained for.

Almost 200 Republicans on the ballot this November do not believe that President Biden legitimately won the 2020 election. That claim has been disproven over and over again, and there’s no way to change the 2020 election results, anyway. So why should we care? Here, Nathaniel explains the profound effect that these candidates could have in 2024 and beyond.

This election cycle, FiveThirtyEight has been tracking the stance of every Republican running for House, Senate, governor, state attorney general and secretary of state on the 2020 election. And what we’ve found so far is that 60 percent of Americans will have on their ballots in November a Republican who denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election.

And tonight, that number could grow, especially in New Hampshire, where one of the two front-runners in the GOP Senate primary has denied the results of the 2020 election.

Retired Army Brig. Gen. Don Bolduc is leading in the polls and has parroted falsehoods that President Biden didn’t win. But this hasn’t endeared Bolduc to Republican leaders in the state. Republican Gov. Chris Sununu, who is fairly popular in the swing state and also up for reelection this year, has called Bolduc a “conspiracy-theory extremist” and offered an 11th-hour endorsement for state Senate President Chuck Morse.

As has been true in other primaries, though, Democrats have tried to use Bolduc’s extremism to their advantage, spending money to promote him — including $3.1 million in TV ads recently —as they see him as a less threatening opponent to Hassan come November.

Here’s a list of all the Republican candidates who have denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election I’ll be tracking tonight:

Note that Morse isn’t on that list, but he also hasn’t affirmed Biden’s win explicitly, instead focusing only on his faith in New Hampshire’s elections and avoiding commentary on the national legitimacy of 2020. In fact, the only candidate in the New Hampshire Republican Senate primary to have publicly stated that Biden is legitimately president is author Vikram Mansharamani, though he polls well behind Bolduc and Morse. Here’s a list of all the Republican candidates who have accepted the 2020 election I’ll be tracking tonight:

New Hampshire is where most eyes will be tonight — especially when it comes to how candidates’ stances on the 2020 election will pan out at the polls. It’s not just the Senate primary, of course: New Hampshire’s 1st and 2nd districts also have crowded fields of election deniers, affirmers and those whose stances are unclear battling it out.

Maybe, Sarah? But also, maybe sitting senators are just more risk-averse than Walker or Masters. Masters, in particular, needs something to shake up the race in order for him to win: According to the FiveThirtyEight forecast, he has just a 22-in-100 chance of prevailing.

Yeah, Nathaniel. I thought it was interesting that no sitting Republican senator has come out in support of Graham, but at least some Republican candidates have. Is it possible Graham has more of a pulse on GOP voters than Mitch McConnell?

It’s a bit of a head-scratcher, for sure, because Democrats seem like the ones energized over the issue of abortion since the Dobbs decision. But it sounds like Graham figures Democrats are already as riled as they’re going to get, but Republicans could use a motivator to vote for Senate, and the chance to ban abortions after 15 weeks — even in blue states where it’s currently protected — might give them reason to do so. Two Republican candidates for Senate, at least, seem to have decided it could help them rather than hurt them: Both Herschel Walker and Blake Masters have already come out in favor of Graham’s bill.

This isn’t exactly related to the primaries on the ballot today, but it is arguably the biggest political news of the day: is Sen. Lindsey Graham’s decided — apparently to the consternation of his colleagues — to introduce a national 15-week ban on abortion. What’s going on here? What reporting do we have at this point on why Graham did this?

In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the team debates if a recent analysis of voter-registration data showing a surge of women registering to vote after the Supreme Court’s recent abortion decision is a good or bad use of data.

With the primaries now coming to a close, we have a clearer picture of how women fared this cycle. First, Democratic women did about as well as they did in 2020 — which is to say, pretty well! They are currently 43 percent of House nominees (compared with 47 percent in 2020), 38 percent of Senate nominees (compared with 36 percent in 2020) and a whopping 47 percent of gubernatorial nominees (compared with 33 percent in 2018), according to the latest numbers from the Center for American Women in Politics.

Taken together, these numbers paint a picture of persistent success for Democratic women, who have made significant electoral gains within their party since 2018.

Tonight, there’s one last Democratic race I’ll be watching closely. In Rhode Island’s governor’s race, two female challengers are taking on the Democratic incumbent, Dan McKee, who assumed that office after the sitting governor, Gina Raimondo, resigned to serve as Biden’s secretary of commerce.

EMILY’s List, a powerful interest group within the Democratic Party, has endorsed one of McKee’s challengers — the state’s current secretary of state, Nellie Gorbea. Gorbea is campaigning on reproductive rights and has suggested that McKee hasn’t done enough as governor to protect women’s access to abortion in the state. Meanwhile, former CVS Health executive Helena Foulkes is also in the running and has an edge in the money race.

Republican women have also done well this year, after historic gains in 2020. They make up 20 percent of House nominees (compared with 23 percent in 2020), 20 percent of Senate nominees (compared with 26 percent in 2020), and 23 percent of gubernatorial nominees (compared with 11 percent in 2018), according to the latest numbers from the Center for American Women in Politics.

Tonight, I am also watching the primary in New Hampshire’s 1st District because the GOP could nominate a woman for a race that might be competitive in November. There are two women in this race who have received endorsements from the GOP women’s groups we’ve been following.

First, Karoline Leavitt, a former press aide in the Trump administration, is endorsed by Elevate PAC, and Gail Huff Brown, a former TV reporter, is endorsed by VIEW PAC. This isn’t the first time Elevate and VIEW have split endorsements, either. In Alaska’s at-Large House race, Elevate supported former Gov. Sarah Palin, while VIEW supported former Assistant Secretary of the Interior Tara Sweeney.

In the Alaska race, Trump backed the Elevate candidate, but he notably hasn’t weighed in on this race, which might have to do with the fact that Matt Mowers, who worked in Trump’s State Department, is also in the running, and in 2020, he received Trump’s endorsement. The winner of this primary will challenge Rep. Chris Pappas in November.

Louisiana calls it an “open primary,” but I prefer to call it a “Louisiana rules” election because no one uses a system like it, except for a few other states when it comes to irregularly timed special elections. “Jungle primary” is also acceptable.

Truthfully, I wasn’t even thinking of the Louisiana election that will take place in November 2022, but rather the one that will take place in October 2023.

In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew analyzes why Biden’s approval rating has increased by nearly 5 percentage points since late July. They also look to the future and discuss how this could possibly impact the midterm elections.

That’s not a primary! It’s a general election, followed by a runoff!

Louisiana has entered the chat.

This is our last primary live blog until the 2024 Iowa caucuses.* How does that make everyone feel?

*Or whichever state goes first on the Democratic side!

Somehow, despite having only two congressional districts and Republicans holding full control over the process, New Hampshire was the last state to enact a new congressional map this redistricting cycle.

The issue was that Republicans in the Legislature wanted to make the biggest changes to the map since the 1800s, reconfiguring New Hampshire’s two current highly competitive seats into one clearly Republican-leaning seat and one clearly Democratic-leaning seat. Gov. Chris Sununu, though, wouldn’t have it, and he pledged to veto the Legislature’s proposals. Finally, the New Hampshire Supreme Court had to step in, and it appointed a special master who drew a map that deviated as little as possible from the old one.

As a result, Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas, whose district was the one slated to turn red, has a much better shot of winning reelection this year: 73 in 100, according to the FiveThirtyEight 2022 midterm election forecast. On the flip side, Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster is no longer safe for reelection; though she’s still the favorite, a large Republican field is competing today for the chance to take her on.

In this video, Nathaniel introduces you to the Republican candidates running in New Hampshire who deny the legitimacy of the 2020 election or have questioned its results.

All the action in the Granite State is on the Republican side of the aisle this evening, as GOP primary voters will decide their nominees in three competitive congressional contests. First, in New Hampshire’s Senate race, Republicans look likely to pick either retired Army Brig. Gen. Don Bolduc or state Senate President Chuck Morse to take on Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan in November.

Bolduc has led in the polls, but Republican leaders view him as a controversial candidate who could cost them a chance of defeating Hassan in purple New Hampshire. Morse has received millions in outside support from national Republicans fretting about Bolduc, and also earned a last-minute endorsement from Republican Gov. Chris Sununu, who has called Bolduc a “conspiracy-theory type” candidate.

Meanwhile, the Republican primary in the 1st District looks to mainly be a race between former Trump White House adviser Matt Mowers and former White House press aide Karoline Leavitt. Both candidates are Trump supporters and touch on leading conservative concerns, but Mowers has been more inclined to run on issues like inflation and wasteful spending, while Leavitt has embraced more provocative conservative stances. The Mowers-Leavitt race has also split House Republican leadership, with Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and Minority Whip Steve Scalise backing Mowers and GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik supporting Leavitt, her former press secretary. The winner will face Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas for this R+1 seat.

Finally, next door, in the 2nd District, Republicans are choosing between Keene Mayor George Hansel or former Hillsborough County Treasurer Robert Burns. Hansel has outraised Burns, but his “pro-choice” stance on abortion and other more moderate positions might trip him up against the more unabashedly conservative Burns. The winner will head into the general as an underdog against Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster for this D+2 seat.

This is it: the LAST primary liveblog of 2022!!! (Your indefatigable FiveThirtyEight live-blog crew is perhaps a little excited by this news. 😉)

But don’t you worry, we’re going out with a bang, with primaries tonight in New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Delaware (although, with apologies to Delaware, there aren’t any key races we’re tracking there).

The main affair tonight is in New Hampshire. There are three key races to watch in the Granite State, with the GOP Senate primary at the top of the ticket. Who Republicans decide to nominate is important, too, because Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan is currently favored to win reelection, according to the FiveThirtyEight 2022 midterm election forecast.

And that’s especially true if retired Army Brig. Gen. Don Bolduc is the one who ends up prevailing. Bolduc is the more extreme of the two front-runners in this race — and Geoffrey will have more on this race for you in a moment — but suffice it to say, he’s not the Republican establishment’s top choice. We’ll also be keeping a close eye on the GOP primaries in New Hampshire’s 1st and 2nd districts.

Republicans aren’t the only ones with important races on the ballot tonight, though. In Rhode Island, there’s a heated Democratic primary for governor, as the current incumbent, Gov. Dan McKee, faces two credible primary challengers. Mired in scandal and low approval ratings, McKee is anything but a shoo-in, and as Meredith will detail a bit later on the live blog, it’s possible Democrats end up nominating a woman in this race, helping Democrats’ boost their already impressive gains in governors’ races this year.

But OK! That’s it from me. And that’s, of course, just a quick rundown of some of the key highlights we’re watching tonight. There’s a lot more going on the live blog, and as always, thanks for following along. If you have any questions, ping us @538politics and I’ll try to get your question answered on the live blog.