The Road Ahead For Bernie
The next two states to vote in the Democratic primary are Nevada and South Carolina. (Nevada votes before South Carolina for Democrats; the reverse is true for Republicans.) In both cases, there’s been a conspicuous absence of polling: Nevada hasn’t been polled since December, and South Carolina was polled a few times in January but hasn’t been surveyed since Iowa. Still, one thing that’s clear is that the terrain is going to be tougher for Sanders from here forward. Here are the current FiveThirtyEight polling averages for Clinton and Sanders in all of the states where we’re keeping track of them.
Sanders has a bright spot in Wisconsin, and Ohio and California look better for him than some of the other states. But he starts way behind Clinton in most other places and will need a lot of momentum out of tonight.
| DATE | STATE | CLINTON | SANDERS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2/20 | Nevada | 50.3 | 28.1 |
| 2/27 | South Carolina | 60.5 | 29.3 |
| 3/8 | Michigan | 59.9 | 29.0 |
| 3/15 | Florida | 61.0 | 26.0 |
| 3/15 | North Carolina | 55.9 | 28.3 |
| 3/15 | Ohio | 52.8 | 38.6 |
| 4/5 | Wisconsin | 45.6 | 43.4 |
| 4/26 | Pennsylvania | 51.4 | 28.0 |
| 6/7 | California | 46.3 | 32.9 |