Prediction markets have Bush’s chances of winning the Republican nomination up by quite a bit. I suppose that makes sense given how poor a night it’s been for Rubio (and to a lesser extent, Christie). But still: Bush has just 11 percent of the vote so far with a third of New Hampshire precincts reporting. This in a state where Bush has invested a ton of time and money and which is a pretty good fit for him ideologically. If Rubio hadn’t disappointed so much by comparison, this result would look like a pretty big failure for Bush.
