On the contested convention question: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada are the setup, but the real delegate prizes are in March, which is do-or-die time. That’s why South Carolina and Nevada are the last best opportunity for anti-Trump/Cruz voters to coalesce. If they don’t, it’s unlikely that Rubio/Bush/Kasich will hit important delegate thresholds in the South-heavy “SEC primary” March 1 and then it would be unlikely that Rubio/Bush/Kasich win must-win, winner-take-all states Florida, Illinois and Ohio on March 15. If South Carolina and Nevada don’t make up for New Hampshire’s failure to clarify the establishment field, the odds of a contested convention go up dramatically.
