Well, we’ve made our share of stupid predictions over the course of this election cycle. But the 20 percent odds I gave for a contested convention back in December are starting to look pretty good! The thing is, even if Republicans eventually consolidate around an establishment alternative, it may take them some time to do so. Meanwhile, Trump and Cruz are going to be piling up delegates. And it’s not like Trump and Cruz’s support is going to crater to zero if someone emerges later on — they represent important constituencies within the party.
