It’s no secret that on election night the candidates do a bit of a scheduling dance to make sure their speeches end up on TV. But it’s still strange to watch the Kasich party come close to starting the speech and then back off several times. Lots of big cheers and chants that sort of peter out as it becomes clear that their candidate isn’t going to take the stage after all. I overheard one Kasich staffer say, “We thought we could squeeze in between Hillary and Bernie. Now we have to wait, and Trump may start soon.” A surprise second place may feel nice, but I guess it doesn’t buy you the cred to command your own network attention.
Farai Chideya
I know I’m putting the cart way before the horse, but it’s hard to imagine who would win the Veepstakes if tonight’s New Hampshire winners got their party’s nomination. Ken Rudin did this analysis of which historical POTUS/Veep partnerships worked well and which failed. Sanders, who has framed himself as a barnstorming socialist Democrat, could face a backlash if he chooses someone too middle of the road. He might need that tactically, but it could alienate his base. For Trump, his choice may be almost immaterial, but it seems unlikely that it would be any of the guys he’s been sharing a debate stage with. Clinton, who framed her speech tonight around core progressive issues, would probably do well by following the typical Veepstakes rules (one of them: go older if you’re young, and vice versa; another: pick a powerful, well-liked governor of a swing state), as would a GOP establishment candidate like Bush.
Nate Silver
Prediction markets have Bush’s chances of winning the Republican nomination up by quite a bit. I suppose that makes sense given how poor a night it’s been for Rubio (and to a lesser extent, Christie). But still: Bush has just 11 percent of the vote so far with a third of New Hampshire precincts reporting. This in a state where Bush has invested a ton of time and money and which is a pretty good fit for him ideologically. If Rubio hadn’t disappointed so much by comparison, this result would look like a pretty big failure for Bush.
