How New Hampshire Voted

I know I’m putting the cart way before the horse, but it’s hard to imagine who would win the Veepstakes if tonight’s New Hampshire winners got their party’s nomination. Ken Rudin did this analysis of which historical POTUS/Veep partnerships worked well and which failed. Sanders, who has framed himself as a barnstorming socialist Democrat, could face a backlash if he chooses someone too middle of the road. He might need that tactically, but it could alienate his base. For Trump, his choice may be almost immaterial, but it seems unlikely that it would be any of the guys he’s been sharing a debate stage with. Clinton, who framed her speech tonight around core progressive issues, would probably do well by following the typical Veepstakes rules (one of them: go older if you’re young, and vice versa; another: pick a powerful, well-liked governor of a swing state), as would a GOP establishment candidate like Bush.

Prediction markets have Bush’s chances of winning the Republican nomination up by quite a bit. I suppose that makes sense given how poor a night it’s been for Rubio (and to a lesser extent, Christie). But still: Bush has just 11 percent of the vote so far with a third of New Hampshire precincts reporting. This in a state where Bush has invested a ton of time and money and which is a pretty good fit for him ideologically. If Rubio hadn’t disappointed so much by comparison, this result would look like a pretty big failure for Bush.

N.H. Democratic primary results | 9:30 pm | 38% reporting

	CANDIDATE	TOTAL VOTES		VOTE PERCENTAGE
✓	Bernie Sanders	47,573	58.7%
2	Hillary Clinton	31,926	39.4