Updated |
How New Hampshire Voted
Prediction markets have Bush’s chances of winning the Republican nomination up by quite a bit. I suppose that makes sense given how poor a night it’s been for Rubio (and to a lesser extent, Christie). But still: Bush has just 11 percent of the vote so far with a third of New Hampshire precincts reporting. This in a state where Bush has invested a ton of time and money and which is a pretty good fit for him ideologically. If Rubio hadn’t disappointed so much by comparison, this result would look like a pretty big failure for Bush.
| CANDIDATE | TOTAL VOTES | VOTE PERCENTAGE | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ | Bernie Sanders | 47,573 | 58.7% | |
| 2 | Hillary Clinton | 31,926 | 39.4 |
On the contested convention question: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada are the setup, but the real delegate prizes are in March, which is do-or-die time. That’s why South Carolina and Nevada are the last best opportunity for anti-Trump/Cruz voters to coalesce. If they don’t, it’s unlikely that Rubio/Bush/Kasich will hit important delegate thresholds in the South-heavy “SEC primary” March 1 and then it would be unlikely that Rubio/Bush/Kasich win must-win, winner-take-all states Florida, Illinois and Ohio on March 15. If South Carolina and Nevada don’t make up for New Hampshire’s failure to clarify the establishment field, the odds of a contested convention go up dramatically.