Updated |
How New Hampshire Voted
On the contested convention question: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada are the setup, but the real delegate prizes are in March, which is do-or-die time. That’s why South Carolina and Nevada are the last best opportunity for anti-Trump/Cruz voters to coalesce. If they don’t, it’s unlikely that Rubio/Bush/Kasich will hit important delegate thresholds in the South-heavy “SEC primary” March 1 and then it would be unlikely that Rubio/Bush/Kasich win must-win, winner-take-all states Florida, Illinois and Ohio on March 15. If South Carolina and Nevada don’t make up for New Hampshire’s failure to clarify the establishment field, the odds of a contested convention go up dramatically.
| CANDIDATE | TOTAL VOTES | VOTE PERCENTAGE | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ | Donald Trump | 30,768 | 34.0% | |
| 2 | John Kasich | 14,121 | 15.6 | |
| 3 | Ted Cruz | 10,674 | 11.8 | |
| 4 | Jeb Bush | 10,430 | 11.5 | |
| 5 | Marco Rubio | 9,444 | 10.4 | |
| 6 | Chris Christie | 7,431 | 8.2 | |
| 7 | Carly Fiorina | 3,950 | 4.4 | |
| 8 | Ben Carson | 2,016 | 2.2 |
Well, we’ve made our share of stupid predictions over the course of this election cycle. But the 20 percent odds I gave for a contested convention back in December are starting to look pretty good! The thing is, even if Republicans eventually consolidate around an establishment alternative, it may take them some time to do so. Meanwhile, Trump and Cruz are going to be piling up delegates. And it’s not like Trump and Cruz’s support is going to crater to zero if someone emerges later on — they represent important constituencies within the party.