FiveThirtyEight
Julia Azari

Where Have You Gone, Party Elders?

On Twitter, a reader asks how a Rubio-Kasich-Bush stalemate ends and suggests:
Jokes about the individuals aside, I think this is a really important point. The fraying of party ties and formal organizations and the ways in which presidents can independently cultivate political support have contributed to this situation. This is the result of an increasingly powerful and public presidency. It’s also an unintended consequence of party reform. The party networks people mention that groups like super PACs play the same role party elders once did. But I maintain that party organizations, which are interested in the party’s viability from year to year, and the related groups that make up their networks have different incentives. And their methods of sanctioning candidates who don’t get in line are coming up short.

CANDIDATE TOTAL VOTES VOTE PERCENTAGE
Bernie Sanders 38,264 58.1%
2 Hillary Clinton 26,277 39.9
N.H. Democratic primary results | 9:15 pm | 30% reporting

Source: AP

CANDIDATE TOTAL VOTES VOTE PERCENTAGE
Donald Trump 23,401 34.0%
2 John Kasich 10,618 15.4
3 Jeb Bush 7,971 11.6
4 Ted Cruz 7,968 11.6
5 Marco Rubio 7,132 10.4
6 Chris Christie 5,720 8.3
7 Carly Fiorina 3,019 4.4
8 Ben Carson 1,546 2.2
N.H. Republican primary results | 9:15 pm | 29% reporting

Highlighting means a candidate has been projected to finish in the rank shown

Source: AP


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