Well, things largely went as expected this evening. Sanders finished first with 26 percent of the vote and Buttigieg was a close second with 24 percent. The one big surprise of the evening? Klobuchar’s third-place surge. She’s set to finish only about 4 points behind Buttigieg, which means she significantly overperformed her polls going into New Hampshire (she was polling at 10 percent in our average). That’s in large part thanks to late-deciders swinging her way.Warren and Biden, meanwhile, had lackluster evenings: Neither candidate cracked more than 10 percent of the vote or won any of New Hampshire’s 24 pledged delegates. We’ll be turning our model on at some point after midnight to get a sense of how New Hampshire’s results change the race moving forward, but for now the big question is: What happens next in Nevada and South Carolina?Both of those states haven’t had many recent polls — in the case of Nevada, there haven’t been any new polls since January — so how candidates like Klobuchar or Buttigieg could fare there is a bit of a mystery. The one thing that is clear? The race is truly is wide open, and even though a couple of candidates dropped out this evening, it doesn’t look like things are about to get settled any time soon.
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