OMG Nathaniel, does that mean Patrick might make it a hat-trick of drop-outs? (Sorry not sorry.)
And Rochester, the town where I spent the day conducting exit polls, is now all in. As in 2016, it seems to match the state numbers somewhat closely, with Sanders at 29 percent, Buttigieg at 25 percent and Klobuchar at 19 percent. Our exit poll seems to have drawn a disproportionate share of Buttigieg backers relative to the voting.
One thing I’ll be watching over the next few days — what’s going on with the administration of Nevada’s caucuses? There are still a lot of unanswered questions after the Nevada Democratic Party announced it would be ditching an app following the spectacular meltdown in Iowa. Kaleigh and I wrote a story last week about why ditching the app presents complications of its own.
I have more of a meta-comment about Biden’s performance and the two big early contests. Iowa and New Hampshire have enjoyed this early and influential status because they were supposed to be uniquely engaged — having all the candidates visit all the time helps, of course — and particularly good places for candidates to demonstrate their appeal. They weren’t necessarily supposed to be representative. But that might be sort of a liability now. If Biden starts to collapse before many voters of color have a chance to weigh in — after leading in the national polls throughout the race — that might be more of a comment on the unrepresentative nature of the early contests than anything else.
Those field offices in Rockingham can’t save Warren, but the results (so far) there do tell us that Buttigieg is winning in the areas that Warren thought were key to her victory.
I will say, though, Nathaniel — my conversation with that woman might have been especially poignant, but it wasn’t unusual. I heard several other Biden supporters say something along the lines of, “Well I thought I’d support him, but I just don’t think he’s got what it takes anymore.” Those were reactions to seeing him in-person. Of course, maybe it was amplified by the media narratives — we are complicated creatures! But I definitely heard it from more than one person.
And as you’d mentioned earlier, Joshua, the Seacoast was one area where Warren had invested heavily in terms of field offices, so it’s possible she could gain a few more points there, but it seems as if clearing 15 percent could still be a tall order at this point.
There are seven towns on the “Merrimack River border” (it’s actually 10 miles from the river, along the curve of the river) with Massachusetts, near the Seacoast. Only one — Seabrook — is reporting anything, and Buttigieg has a 7-point lead. Salem, for instance (population 28,000 or so, and home of Canobie Lake Park, the amusement park of my childhood!), hasn’t reported anything.
One thing I have noticed in talking to people tonight — a lot of Warren’s supporters mentioned her anti-corruption message as the reason they’re supporting her. It’s way more prevalent than when I was following her around Iowa late last year. Of course, this might be a self-selecting crowd, but I also wonder if Warren’s pivot back to her core message (anti-corruption, wealth tax, etc.) back in December made her seem like more of a niche candidate, and some other folks peeled off to other candidates, leaving the diehard anti-corruption supporters behind.
As the Warren event winds down, there’s still a long selfie line wrapping around the room. I talked to a few people waiting for pictures with Warren, and they seemed baffled by why she hadn’t caught on. One couple, Donald and Ashley, said that they’re sick of hearing the “electability” arguments against her. “People will say, I’ll vote for anyone who goes up against Trump,” Donald said. “Then they turn around and say, ‘But I don’t know if a woman or someone that far to the left could get elected.’ It doesn’t make sense.” There seems to be a general sense in the room that Warren was shortchanged by New Hampshire voters. But hey, I guess them’s the breaks, right?
Biden also spent less than his fellow candidates on Facebook ads that were seen by New Hampshire users over the last 90 days. His total landed at just under $12,000, compared to Sanders, Yang and Buttigieg, who all spent around $200,000, according to Facebook’s ad library.
I did, Galen! And it’s worth noting that these are all anecdotal experiences — my own and that woman’s. Frankly, I think Biden probably flopped in Iowa because it wasn’t a great state for him demographically and his ground game was not as good as the other candidates’. That was then exacerbated in New Hampshire because of the negative coverage he received for finishing fourth in Iowa.
A big spread right now between The Upshot needle, which gives Sanders only a 54 percent chance of winning, and betting markets, which give him a 90 percent chance. Ordinarily, I’d defer very strongly to the needle here, but other sites have more updated vote counts than the AP, which is the one The Upshot is using, and that may give reason to be a bit more confident about Bernie’s chances.
Nineteen percent of the Democratic primary electorate say that the age of the candidates was an important factor in deciding their vote. Those voters substantially broke for Buttigieg and Klobuchar. Among the 80 percent for whom it wasn’t a factor, Sanders is head and shoulders above the other candidates.
For what it’s worth, as someone who followed Biden around a lot this summer and fall and has seen him out here lately, there is a different vibe. He’s actually really good when he’s being discursive and connecting with voters up close, but I think he’s been really rattled by the environment of the early states and protesters and the rabid competition he’s getting. It seems to have shaken him. He was much more affable this summer.
Here it is again:
Nathaniel, did you see the video where Amelia spoke with a woman at a Biden rally who expressed sadness afterward because she wanted to support him, but was so disappointed by his performance?
Ehh, Galen, I’m not sure that narrative is true. I saw Biden this weekend at an intimate town hall-style event and at a big rally in a stadium, and he was much better in the intimate setting. As for TV advertising, Biden actually aired virtually no ads in New Hampshire. I think he might have done better if he had.
Wave, Clare!
Well, the Buttigieg crowd just realized that they’re on CNN, so we’re seeing a ruckus erupt. Looking like he might be coming out to talk soonish?
To build on Galen’s point, isn’t that precisely one of the reasons why some defend starting the process with small states like New Hampshire and Iowa — so that voters can see the candidates up close, in a sense?
You have to wonder why Biden has done quite so poorly in Iowa and, now, New Hampshire. I am sure there are multiple reasons, but one that sticks out is how much retail campaigning matters in both states. Many voters here and in Iowa attend multiple events and suss out the candidates’ energy and messages before making up their minds. Any reporter who has attended a Biden event can tell you that the retail magic is just not there. In an environment where name recognition and TV advertising matter more than retail politics, Biden might have held up better in the polls.
According to the exit polls, 70 percent of Klobuchar’s voters decided on her in the last few days. In contrast, that’s true for just 32 percent of Sanders’s voters — the majority of his supporters made up their mind before that.
Forty percent of the expected vote is now reporting, according to ABC. Sanders leads Buttigieg 28 percent to 23 percent now; Klobuchar is not too far behind at 20 percent. Notably, Manchester and Nashua (the state’s two largest cities), which I was expecting to be good for Sanders, are mostly reporting now, and they were good but not great for Sanders. So there is still a chance for Buttigieg to pass Sanders, given that many affluent suburbs along the Massachusetts border have yet to report. On the other hand, maybe Klobuchar will do well there, just as she did in Bedford. The Klobucharge may well cost Buttigieg the win tonight.
With Klobuchar currently in third, thought I’d share this interview Amelia did yesterday with a Klobuchar supporter who flew in to New Hampshire from California to canvass. He voted for Sanders in 2016 — and in fact, wrote in Sanders’s name in the general election that year.
Some More Thoughts On Yang's Departure
Yang, who announced the end of his campaign as it became clear he was way behind in the early returns from New Hampshire, probably never really had a chance to win the Democratic nomination. He had never ran for or served in an elective office. And unlike President Trump, Yang wasn’t famous from his business career either. Also, Democrats are desperate to find an “electable” candidate — and an Asian-American man who lives in New York City and campaigned on giving all Americans $12,000 a year was probably not what they had in mind.
Yang and his campaign deserve a lot of credit, though. He brought up issues, such as rising levels of automation, that other candidates did not. He raised a decent amount of money. And he garnered more support, according to national polls, than a lot of other candidates — more support, it’s safe to say, than most political observers expected. In December, for example, he qualified for a debate that Sen. Cory Booker failed to make — even though the New Jersey senator had been hyped as a potential president candidate for more than a decade. Yang built a very enthusiastic, if small, base of supporters. It’s hard to measure this, but I assume Yang both increased the number of Americans who know about the idea of creating a universal basic income and the number of those that support the idea.
Still, it was clear that Yang didn’t have a path to victory. He never really got above 5 percent in national polls. He didn’t get many notable endorsements. He got about 5 percent of the raw popular vote in Iowa, well behind the leading contenders. He may not even reach 5 percent in New Hampshire. Thus, he dropped out.
His departure from the race continues the whitening of the Democratic field, which has included four black candidates, two Asian-Americans and one Latino. Of that group, Yang was the only person to have qualified for the last presidential debate. Tulsi Gabbard and Deval Patrick are still in the race, but they not only have little chance of winning but are also long-shots to qualify for future debates. The focus on electability probably hurt the minority candidates (because that term has come to mean who can win over white, working-class voters in states like Wisconsin.) But the field in 2020 was also so big that lots of people were always destined to not make it — 12 white men have also quit after gaining little traction.
I doubt Yang is done with politics. You could imagine him running for mayor of New York or perhaps governor. You could imagine him being nominated to a Cabinet post, such as Commerce Secretary. And he may not be done running for president either.
As Laura pointed out, college-educated white women are a large share of all primary voters tonight, and will probably be an important voting bloc in the 2020 general election. Ahead of the 2018 midterms, there was mounting speculation that the GOP had a “woman problem.” Prior to the midterms, there was concern that the GOP could not rely on the continued support of white women, particularly college-educated white women, given that just 45 percent of this group supported Trump in 2016, compared to 52 percent who supported Romney, the Republican nominee, in 2012.
With a little more than 40 percent of the vote in, the delegate picture at the statewide level would look like this:
PLEO delegates: Sanders, Buttigieg and Klobuchar would each receive one delegate.
At-large delegates: Sanders and Buttigieg would each round up to two delegates and Klobuchar would take the remaining delegate.
Wealthy, college-educated suburban voters in Hillsborough County (around Manchester) still haven’t been counted. Sanders’ statewide margin is less than 5 percent and we’re waiting on these potentially Buttigieg/Klobuchar-friendly towns (Hooksett, Goffstown, Auburn).
Just chatting with some press corps people here in the room, and I think everyone is a little baffled by what direction this race is going to go in now. Biden leaving the state early, Klobuchar performing better, Warren not even breaking into the top three. I think the professionals paid to cover this feel as in the dark about the eventual outcome of this race as anyone!
One potential reason for the Klobucharge? College-educated white women, who are 28 percent of the primary electorate tonight, according to exit polls. Klobuchar is leading by quite a bit here, and she’s far stronger among this group than among either non-college white women or college-educated white men. In contrast, while Warren is also stronger among college-educated white women than among other groups, she’s still only in fourth (after Klobuchar, Buttigieg and Sanders).
Klobuchar came into the night with a single pledged delegate from Iowa, and she’s on track to pick up five or six more from New Hampshire — which would put her in the same ballpark as Biden (who won six in Iowa) and Warren (who won eight in Iowa), neither of whom are likely to win any delegates tonight.
To give you an idea of how Klobuchar has elbowed in between Warren and Buttigieg to become a top choice of college-educated white voters in New Hampshire, consider the town of Bedford, which has a median household income of $131,986 and where 62 percent of residents over the age of 25 have a college degree. Klobuchar won 28 percent there tonight, Buttigieg won 26 percent, Sanders won 17 percent, Biden won 9 percent and Warren won 8 percent.
Our first dispatch video from the ABC News media filing center in Manchester! Galen and Nathaniel react to early results after the polls have closed.
Sanders won the primary by a lot in 2016, and yet his 2016 supporters don’t seem to be turning out in numbers this time.
One nostalgic Yang thought: this guy sort of warmed my cynical heart because I got to watch him get so much better at running for president over time. I can remember the first debate he was in where he was wooden and wasn’t great at verbalizing his sole policy proposal. But man, he really blossomed! Over time, his sense of humor emerged and as he got comfortable in front of press and cameras, he started articulating policy ideas beyond the narrow scope he initially set for himself. In short, I will miss the Yang presence.
Over at NBC, their decision desk is projecting that neither Warren nor Biden will get any delegates tonight.
With 33 percent of the expected vote now in, the topline numbers are holding steady: Sanders leads with 28 percent, Buttigieg is second with 23 percent, Klobuchar is third with 20 percent, Warren is fourth with 10 percent and Biden is fifth with 9 percent.
Nate repping the brand on ABC!!!
I would have expected Klobuchar to be doing particularly well among 2016 Clinton supporters, but looking at the exit poll crosstabs, she’s actually doing about equally well among those who voter for Clinton and those who supported neither Clinton nor Sanders. Biden is doing notably better among Clinton supporters than any other group, and — no surprises here — Sanders is mopping up among his own 2016 supporters.
Before Warren went on to speak, I was talking to some voters in the back corner of the airplane hanger, where a TV was showing Yang’s dropout speech. A college student named Myles was standing off to the side, looking a little glum. “She might tie with Biden, and that’s not a good look,” he said. I asked him who his second choice was, and he laughed and pointed to the TV. “He’s dropping out right now,” he said.
The Upshot’s needle seems to be on, and it projects that the remaining precincts are going to be a little better for Buttigieg than what we’ve seen so far. It also has extremely wide confidence intervals so there’s a lot we don’t know. But it’s too soon to make TOO many assumptions yet.
We’ve been talking about the delegates at stake tonight in New Hampshire (24 pledged delegates) and right now, and as Aaron said earlier, ABC has currently assigned four delegates each to Sanders, Buttigieg and Klobuchar. Remember, if the current results hold, and Biden and Warren don’t crack 15 percent statewide, they won’t get any delegates. Of course, we’re still missing ~ 70 percent of the vote, so things could change.
Sarah, I think Klobuchar’s support came a bit from Buttigieg and Warren; traditionally, they have both relied on college-educated white voters, but Klobuchar won that group tonight, according to exit polls. However, I also think a lot of Klobuchar’s support simply came from “undecided” voters. As Laura mentioned earlier, she did well in the exit poll among voters for whom Friday’s debate was important to their vote. And while Klobuchar is overperforming her polling average, no other candidates are really underperforming theirs.
Buttigieg jumps in on the #YangGang praise train:
Geoffrey, are there absentee ballots in the primary? Sometimes vote counts grow after Election Day.
Looking at turnout among municipalities that are 100 percent reporting, turnout is about 10 percent lower among them than it was in the 2008 Democratic primary. If that continues, you might expect more talk about lower-than-expected turnout that started with the Iowa caucuses.
Consider this a somewhat holistic analysis based on the results and exit polls, but Sarah, I do think the Klobucharge came at Buttigieg’s expense. Sanders looks like he’ll finish almost perfectly in line with his polls — same with Buttigieg. Seems like Klobuchar got a lot of the late deciders, and people who prioritize uniting the country, moderation, etc. Given Buttigieg’s lower name recognition going into Iowa, he had to hope his half-win in the Hawkeye State would have won him a lot of those voters.