Who’s Most Likely To Drop Out After New Hampshire
In recent presidential primaries, candidates have dropped out of the race after poor showings in Iowa. But last week, the only person who quit was a Republican –– Joe Walsh, the former congressman who was running a long-shot campaign against Trump. None of the Democrats opted out.
Some of this stability might have less to do with Iowa’s jumbled results, however, and more to do with the fact that both Booker and former congressman John Delaney of Maryland dropped out in the weeks before Iowa. They were both due for dismal finishes and likely would have ended their campaigns immediately after the caucuses anyway. But it’s likely that Klobuchar stayed in the race in part because she cracked double digits (12.7 percent of the first-alignment popular vote) in Iowa and wasn’t that far behind the race’s nominal front-runner, Biden (14.9) — even though she still finished fifth.
So will some of the Democrats quit after New Hampshire? Maybe. I’m watching these six candidates closely. I put them in order from most to least likely to drop out, in my view:
Bennet: The Colorado senator basically skipped Iowa and decided he would campaign hard in New Hampshire instead. Polls suggest this strategy isn’t working, though. Bennet is still in the very low single digits in the Granite State. He’s running as a moderate alternative to Sanders and Warren, but it appears that Buttigieg, Biden and Klobuchar are winning those voters. Also, Bloomberg looms in the Super Tuesday states as another candidate running to the center. It’s hard to see any logic behind Bennet continuing to campaign past Tuesday, unless he does surprisingly well in New Hampshire.
Patrick: The former Massachusetts governor also skipped Iowa and instead focused on New Hampshire, but like Bennet, he is way behind in the polls. Patrick is black, though, and might stay in the race if Biden is still struggling and no candidate emerges as the obvious favorite for black voters as the primary calendar moves to states with larger black electorates than Iowa and New Hampshire. I’m not saying this is a logical strategy (the failed candidacies of Harris and Booker suggest black voters aren’t necessarily looking for a black candidate). But I think Patrick might use his potential appeal to black voters as a reason to continue to his long-shot candidacy.
Gabbard: Like Bennet and Patrick, the Hawaii congresswoman opted for a New Hampshire-centric strategy that doesn’t seem to be working, according to polls. But she is running a very unorthodox campaign. She recently filed a defamation lawsuit against Hillary Clinton over the former secretary of state’s remarks last year that Gabbard says cast her as a “Russian asset” and suggested that the Russians hope Gabbard will run as a third-party candidate to boost Trump’s chances of winning the general election. Whatever the merits of the lawsuit, taking on the former Democratic presidential nominee may not be the best approach to winning Democratic primary voters.
It’s hard to predict Gabbard’s moves post-New Hampshire, though, because I’m not sure if she’s really running to win the nomination in the first place (as opposed to using her candidacy to boost her political profile). Perhaps she’ll just remain in the race no matter where she finishes in New Hampshire or in subsequent states.
Klobuchar: The Minnesota senator is a traditional candidate who is likely to drop out if she doesn’t see a path to victory. If Klobuchar finishes fifth in New Hampshire, I expect she will leave the race this week. But recent polls suggest Klobuchar could finish in third or fourth place in New Hampshire — behind Sanders, Buttigieg and possibly Warren, but ahead of Biden. If that does happen, I would expect Klobuchar to continue, because she might emerge as the leading female candidate in the race. Speaking of the leading female candidate …
Warren: It might seem strange at first to even consider the possibility of Warren dropping out — the Massachusetts senator finished third in Iowa and she is third in New Hampshire according to polls. But there is a real chance that she finishes fourth in New Hampshire not only behind Sanders and Buttigieg, but also behind Biden or Klobuchar. And it’s not impossible to see her finishing fifth, either. If Warren finishes behind Klobuchar in a state bordering Massachusetts (her home state), I think it’s likely she will consider dropping out, because that would suggest she has almost no chance of winning the nomination.
Yang: Like with Gabbard, it’s never been clear if the businessman really thinks he can win the nomination or if he’s seriously running to do so. So he might stay in the race for months, even if he loses in every state. I have no idea. But unlike many of the others on this list, Yang competed hard in Iowa and still finished far behind. (In the first-alignment popular vote, he was in sixth place, at 5 percent. Will a second bad finish cause him to rethink his candidacy? Maybe.)
Finally, the Republican primary may end on Tuesday night or early Wednesday. (It never really started.) Former Gov. Bill Weld of Massachusetts is the last remaining challenger to Trump, with former Rep. Mark Sanford of South Carolina and Walsh having already dropped out. So does Weld get to double digits in New Hampshire? (Probably not.) And even if he does, would the ex-governor continue a campaign that has almost no chance of success? (Remains to be seen.)