This Texas special election really is wild, though. Vela decided to resign before his district gets a boost from the redistricting process, and the Democrat who won the primary for the 34th, Rep. Vicente Gonzalez decided not to run this evening. National Democrats really didn’t invest in this race either until very late in the game. I’m curious, what Democrats’ strategy — if we even want to call it that — was there in Texas’s 34th? Additionally, if Republicans do pick up the 34th tonight, what does it tell us about other competitive South Texas races this November? As Geoffrey mentioned, it would be hard for Republicans to retain this seat given how much bluer the seat will soon be, but at the same time, wasn’t it arguably a mistake for Democrats not to invest more in this race?
In South Carolina, regarding Mace, she also has support from several Republican women’s groups: VIEW PAC and Winning for Women. It’s rare, but is an example of these women’s groups endorsing against a Trump-supported candidate (Arrington).
Exactly, Geoffrey, that’s why I think national Democrats didn’t invest heavily in this seat until very recently.
But Geoffrey, it would technically give us an incumbent-versus-incumbent general election, which are always fun.
Alex, seems like the most likely outcome is that Flores will eventually win the special for this seat — either tonight or in a runoff — but then lose in November to Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, who is running in the new, bluer 34th District rather than in his purple 15th District. Even if she can get the upper hand in the special in the D+5 outgoing version of this seat, doing so in the D+17 version that will be used during the 2022 election will be tough.
Latest count in South Carolina’s 7th District GOP primary
Results of the Republican primary for South Carolina’s 7th Congressional District, as of 8:24 p.m. Eastern
| Candidate | Votes | Vote % |
|---|---|---|
| Russell Fry | 6,977 | 44.4% |
| Tom Rice* | 4,419 | 28.1 |
| Barbara Arthur | 2,347 | 14.9 |
| Ken Richardson | 840 | 5.3 |
| Garrett Barton | 786 | 5.0 |
| Mark McBride | 274 | 1.7 |
| Spencer Morris | 86 | 0.5 |
Well we are getting some results in Texas’s race — for those at home following along with me! According to The New York Times, with 34 percent of the vote in, Democrat Dan Sanchez currently leads Republican Mayra Flores 48 percent to 45 percent. Democrat Rene Coronado sits at 6 percent, while Republican Juana Cantu-Cabrera is at 1 percent.
We’re starting to get some votes in South Carolina! With 12 percent of the expected vote reporting, Mace has 55 percent of the vote, Arrington has 43 percent, and Piper-Loomis (perhaps to her chagrin) has three percent of the vote. Some background on Mace: she’s a freshman representative who was elected in 2020. Despite having worked to elected Trump in 2016, she was then critical of his role in the January 6 insurrection and voted to certify the election. Since then, she’s tried to walk that criticism back and present herself as a Trump backer after all.
Interestingly, Mace has carved out a path for herself in Congress as a big supporter of legal marijuana. In an interview earlier this year, she said, “It’s an enormously popular idea. America is like: ‘WTF, D.C., why have you not done this yet?'” She’s…not wrong, about marijuana legalization’s popularity anyway. It is truly one of the only issues that gets bipartisan support these days.
Let’s see … There was the March 1 primary, the May 7 local elections, the May 24 runoffs and now the first round of this special election. So four!
Wait, isn’t this the third?!? (Don’t forget, tonight’s race could go to a runoff, too!)
Everything’s bigger in Texas, and also they have more election days? That’s how that saying goes, right, Nathaniel?
Alex, it’s pretty crazy how many election days Texas has had this year. What is this, the fourth one?
Sorry for the sidebar, but polls recently closed in the great state of Texas and here’s what I’m watching tonight: There’s an emergency special election taking place after Democratic Rep. Filemon Vela hastily vacated his seat. And, as I’ve said before on this live blog, the winner of tonight’s race will complete the remainder of Vela’s term, which ends in January. This seat is historically Democratic, but Republicans are trying to flip the district as they work to make greater inroads in South Texas.
What’s working in their favor is that tonight’s race will happen under the previous, more competitive boundaries of the 34th District — which has a partisan lean of D+5. (The November election, meanwhile, will take place under district lines that are more favorable to Democrats.) The biggest name to watch in the four-person field on the GOP side is Mayra Flores, the current Republican nominee for the November general election. But on the Democratic side, Dan Sanchez, a Harlingen attorney who has Vela’s support, has expressed confidence that his party can retain the seat. Two other lesser-known candidates, Democrat Rene Coronado and Republican Juana “Janie” Cantu-Cabrera, are on the ballot, too, which means this race could go to a runoff and we’d get another Texas race later this summer… 🤠
And since then, Amelia, Piper-Loomis has continued campaigning… for Arrington. She tweeted yesterday about a town hall she was participating in and said “It is critical all conservatives unite behind Katie Arrington to DEFEAT Nancy Mace!”
Yes, Amelia and Meredith, I think we see that in Rice’s race, too. What some of Rice’s opponents, including Fry, say is that Trump was on his way out of office and the vote was meaningless, so Rice just allowed himself to be “weaponized” by the Democrats. What’s ironic is that many of the Republicans who refuse to say 2020 was a legitimate election also won races in that year.
What We’re Watching In Maine Tonight
The polls have just closed in Maine, but to be honest, there isn’t much to hold our attention there tonight. While the November gubernatorial race should be competitive, the matchup is already set, as Democratic Gov. Janet Mills and Republican former Gov. Paul LePage are unopposed in their respective primaries. The only contested primary in the 2nd District between former Rep. Bruce Poliquin and Elizabeth Caruso for the Republican nomination, but Poliquin should win the nod easily.
Speaking of Mace, I will be giving you tonight’s updates on South Carolina’s 1st congressional district, where Mace is facing off against Katie Arrington. Another candidate, Lynz Piper-Loomis, is also on the ballot, but she actually endorsed Arrington — and in quite a dramatic way. During a debate among the candidates in May, Piper-Loomis answered her first question by saying, “The way that I would earn the votes in this district would be by endorsing Katie for South Carolina District 1 for Congress.” Then she hugged Arrington and walked off the stage. She definitely gets points for flair, but she remains on the ballot, and she’s already gotten a (very small) number of votes as the results start to trickle in.
How Big Lie opponents are doing tonight
Senate, House, gubernatorial, attorney general and secretary of state candidates who have accepted the legitimacy of the 2020 election, and their results in Republican primaries in Maine, Nevada, North Dakota and South Carolina, as of 8:20 p.m. Eastern
| CANDIDATE | OFFICE | Big Lie Position | % REPORTING | VOTE SHARE | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Hoeven* | ND Sen. | ✅ Accepted 2020 results | 0% | 84.6% | Leading |
| Marvin Lepp | ND SoS | 🤔 Accepted with reservations | 0 | 22.8 | Trailing |
| Lauren Martel | SC AG | 🤔 Accepted with reservations | 12 | 31.6 | ✗ Lost |
| Nancy Mace* | SC-01 | ✅ Accepted 2020 results | 12 | 54.7 | Leading |
| Tom Rice* | SC-07 | 🤔 Accepted with reservations | 23 | 28.7 | Trailing |
| Kelly Armstrong* | ND-AL | ✅ Accepted 2020 results | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| William “Bill” Hockstedler | NV Sen. | ✅ Accepted 2020 results | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Kristopher Dahir | NV SoS | 🤔 Accepted with reservations | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Jane Adams | NV-01 | 🤔 Accepted with reservations | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Cresent Hardy | NV-01 | 🤔 Accepted with reservations | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Danny Tarkanian | NV-02 | 🤔 Accepted with reservations | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| John Kovacs | NV-03 | 🤔 Accepted with reservations | 0 | 0.0 | — |
It’s why we tend to find Republican candidates who have no stated opinion on the Big Lie, rather than clearly stating that the 2020 election was legitimate. It’s much less risky to dodge the question than it is to say “yes, Biden won fair and square.”
Right, Amelia. I think the impeachment vote was more easily framed as an overreach by Democrats, or even an orchestrated distraction.
Mace definitely got the memo that, while Republicans are fine with politicians having some daylight with Trump, crafting your identity around anti-Trumpism is a ticket to unemployment. I can’t find the poll at the moment, but in surveys Republican voters will tell you as much. They are OK with lawmakers disagreeing with Trump, but there are limits.
Yeah, it also seems like there’s a pretty big symbolic difference between voting for impeachment (like Rice) and voting to certify the election (like Mace). Even if some Republican voters aren’t happy with it, voting to certify the election seems like an easier pill to swallow.
Adopting the disparaging epithets of your opponent became trendy on both sides, Sarah — lest we forget all the “nevertheless she persisted” girlboss merch.
And to your earlier point, Amelia, Mace has paid a price for her independent streak, too. Last summer, she got a concealed carry gun permit after receiving death threats and having her house graffitied.
I made this point on this week’s podcast, but Rice and Mace’s races offer an interesting test case into where the GOP goes post-Trump. Meaning, is there a path to run as a conservative whose loyal to Trump’s policies, while distancing yourself from — or even criticizing — some of his actions?
But also MAGA in some ways is so 2020. The Washington Post had a recent piece on “Ultra MAGA” Republicans. It’s an insult Biden actually coined, but as Meredith points out… it is likely to backfire among MAGA voters who have already moved to embrace it. Remember “basket of deplorable” from 2016?
It’s true, Meredith, and it’s sometimes confounding who gets ordained as sufficiently MAGA and who gets blacklisted, despite playing all the MAGA greatest hits on rotation. I’m thinking of Mo Brooks and Mark Brnovich types.
Like Monica mentioned regarding Rice, he voted with Trump 94% of the time! But policy positions seem to matter so much less than usual in this GOP environment. You’re either a MAGA Republican, or you’re not. I, along with others on the liveblog today, have been spending some time on candidates’ Facebook pages as we do research about the primary candidates, and it seems pretty clear from the comments that “MAGA Republicans” know which candidates in these races are Trumpy and which aren’t, and they’re not shy about criticizing the one’s who aren’t.
Yeah, Amelia the stories from Republicans who have gone up against Trump about concerns for their safety are nuts. As Georgia Sec. of State Raffensperger told me, on Easter Day someone texted his wife a sexually explicit message and said “every day that we pray for your death.”
This primary is making me hungry.
We’re Tracking How Trump-endorsed Candidates Fare Tonight
How Trump’s endorsees are doing tonight
Senate, House and gubernatorial candidates endorsed by former President Donald Trump and their results in Republican primaries in Maine, Nevada, North Dakota and South Carolina, as of 8:07 p.m. Eastern
| Candidate | Office | % Reporting | Vote Share | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry McMaster* | SC Gov. | 6% | 84.3% | ✓ Won |
| Katie Arrington | SC-01 | 3 | 31.6 | Trailing |
| William Timmons* | SC-04 | 3 | 60.8 | Leading |
| Russell Fry | SC-07 | 12 | 44.7 | Leading |
| John Hoeven* | ND Sen. | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Adam Laxalt | NV Sen. | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Joe Lombardo | NV Gov. | 0 | 0.0 | — |
Nathaniel, 🤦♀️. But readers, do know that I egged someone on in the newsroom to make this joke, so you’re also welcome.
I’ll be very disappointed if no newspaper goes with the headline “FRIED RICE” tomorrow.
Latest count in South Carolina’s 7th District GOP primary
Results of the Republican primary for South Carolina’s 7th Congressional District, as of 8:06 p.m. Eastern
| Candidate | Votes | Vote % |
|---|---|---|
| Russell Fry | 2,462 | 44.3% |
| Tom Rice* | 1,232 | 22.2 |
| Barbara Arthur | 1,056 | 19.0 |
| Garrett Barton | 511 | 9.2 |
| Ken Richardson | 176 | 3.2 |
| Mark McBride | 95 | 1.7 |
| Spencer Morris | 25 | 0.4 |
Sarah, perhaps it’s no coincidence that Valadao might be the only one of the 10 Republicans to survive into the next Congress. After all, he’s the only one who was still running and didn’t get a GOP primary challenger endorsed by Trump. Still, he’s also in the bluest district of any pro-impeachment House Republican, so he might find himself in trouble come November.
But with Rice potentially cooked (🍚) tonight or in a runoff later this month, August will be a big test for the four other pro-impeachment House Republicans, each of whom face a Trump-backed opponent. Republican Rep. Liz Cheney looks to be in an uphill fight against challenger Harriet Hageman, while the top-two primary system makes it a little unclear how things might shake out for the two Washington Republicans in the same boat, Reps. Jaime Herrera Butler and Dan Newhouse. Michigan Rep. Peter Meijer also could have serious problems in his primary in another district that leans blue.
I do understand why some of the Republicans who voted for Trump’s impeachment decided to just retire. Rice has been facing death threats and in the aftermath of the vote; his wife didn’t feel safe walking around their district. The hostility from some voters is very, very intense.
That’s right, Alex. He continues to stand up for his vote on principle. “My friend, democracy is a fragile thing,” he said in response to the first question in a May 5 debate. “And the one thing that we have to protect us from tyranny is our constitution, and our constitution has to be protected at all costs.”
I’d say Rice’s race in the 7th District is a pretty big test of Trump’s endorsement power and whether voters will punish incumbents who voted in favor of impeachment. At the very least, I’d expect a runoff here between Rice and state Rep. Russell Fry — if not Fry winning outright.
What’s also probably working against Rice right now, and arguably why he might have a harder reelection bid than, say, Rep. Nancy Mace in the 1st District, is because he’s continued to double-down on the impeachment vote and made clear during the campaign that he is willing to stake his political career on that vote.
I’m watching Rice’s race in South Carolina’s 7th District, and, as Politico has reported and Nathaniel said earlier, his vote in favor of impeaching Trump after the Jan. 6 insurrection has made him unpopular in his district, and looks like it will cost him politically. The fact that he otherwise voted with Trumpp most of the time, yet is still facing these electoral consequences for not supporting the Big Lie, says a lot about the current Republican Party, I think.
It’s definitely an interesting data point, Sarah! If nothing else, the fact that so many of the pro-impeachment Republicans won’t be returning to Congress is a sign of how little tolerance there is for intra-party dissent these days.
Yes, Sarah, it is notable. Before a single vote is even cast, almost half of the Trump impeachers are leaving Congress. And I’d venture a guess that only 1 to 3 of them will be left standing in the end. Despite some high-profile losses for Trump’s endorsed candidates this year, the GOP is still very much his party. And as I wrote last year, anti-Trump or just not-especially-Trumpy Republicans are retiring at high rates, and their replacements are often true-blue Trumpists.
Speaking of California, we still don’t know whether Rep. David Valadao will edge out Republican Chris Mathys in California’s 22nd — just 48 percent of the vote is reported there, but Valadao’s fate is notable as he’s one of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump. And speaking of Trump and impeachment, we have another House Republican who voted to impeach Trump on the ballot tonight, this time South Carolina Rep. Tim Rice.
And Rice looks to be in real trouble. According to a recent Trafalgar Group poll, he entered the home stretch with 25 percent support, which is roughly half the support Trump-backed challenger state Rep. Russell Fry attracted at 42 percent.
We’ve said to be cautious this primary season not to read too much into Trump’s endorsements — after all, despite some bruising losses in Georgia, his win rate isn’t that bad. But what about Republicans who voted to impeach Trump? Four have already retired and if both Valadao and Rice lose, that means six of the 10 would not be returning to Congress. That’s pretty notable, right?
For what it’s worth, far more people will vote in the general than in the primary, so Caruso has a chance, especially since he’s expected to spend millions and millions. But you can perhaps more easily see Bass’s path to the magic majority.
Yeah, I think from an appearances perspective it maybe changes thing. Caruso is in second instead of first, but given the nuts and bolts of Los Angeles’s coalitions, a three-point change is … still a three-point change.
It’s competitive, yeah, but the rest of the candidates are closer to Bass ideologically, and I would expect those voters to migrate to her in the runoff. Bass, de León and Viola, who are all between liberal and progressive, are currently combining for 55 percent of the vote.
Does it though, Nathaniel? Caruso still advances and faces Bass in the general. I hear you about the coverage coming out of last Tuesday being focused more on Caruso, but this is still a very competitive race.
I saw people talking about polling misses in the LA mayoral race based on only a small amount of the vote. Don’t do that.
Well, Galen, I think a lot of people saw Caruso’s strength as a bad result for progressives in Los Angeles. Of course, as we discussed on last week’s podcast, that was never really true — at least not to the same extent that the recall of San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin (who lost 55 percent of the vote) was. But Caruso slipping below 40 percent and into second place really drives the point home.
How would you change the narratives that came out of last week based on that change, Nathaniel?
What To Watch In Texas’s Special Election
Texas is gracing us with yet another election — the third within the span of four months. Tonight we’ll be keeping an eye out on an emergency special election in the 34th District, which Gov. Greg Abbott called in April after Democratic Rep. Filemon Vela vacated his seat.
The winner of tonight’s race will complete the remainder of Vela’s term, which ends in January. And while this is a historically Democratic seat, Republicans in Texas are eager to flip the seat as they try to make greater inroads in South Texas. Arguably the biggest factor working in their favor is that tonight’s election will happen under the previous, more competitive boundaries of the 34th District — which has a partisan lean of D+5.
The Republican party has fielded a formidable candidate, too: Mayra Flores, the current Republican nominee for the November general election. Not only has she received a flood of outside support — including from the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC close to House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy — but some polling suggests that she also has an advantage heading into tonight.
On the Democratic side, Dan Sanchez, a Harlingen attorney who has Vela’s support, has expressed confidence that Democrats can retain the seat — even though interestingly, Sanchez isn’t running for this seat in the fall. Instead, Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez — who opted to not run in Tuesday’s special election — will be the party’s nominee against Flores come November.
To be clear, national Democrats have performed well in this district during the last three presidential elections, but the Republican offensive has left the party as an underdog in an area of the state they have long dominated. In fact, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee didn’t get involved in the race until very recently. But that might be because the national party is storing up its energy for the November election, which will take place under district lines that are far more favorable to Democrats (D+17).
Of course, there might be one more wrinkle in tonight’s race: We could get another Texas election if tonight’s race goes to a runoff. Beyond Sanchez and Flores, there are two lesser-known candidates on the ballot, Democrat Rene Coronado and Republican Juana Cantu-Cabrera; if no candidate receives a majority of the vote, the top two vote-getters would go head-to-head later this year.