What Went Down During The June 14 Primary Elections

Well, it took longer than expected to get results in Nevada thanks to a state law that stipulates that no results can be released until everyone in line to vote has voted. But at long last we got results and we’re calling it a night, as we’ve got a pretty good sense at this point on where most of the major races are going to end up. Additionally, we can see the headline coming out of the Silver State on Tuesday. And that is, in four of Nevada’s statewide races, it looks likely that a candidate who backs Trump’s fraudulent claim that the 2020 election was stolen will advance.

First, in the U.S. Senate primary, former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt has advanced. Laxalt had Trump’s endorsement, was a co-chair of Trump’s 2020 campaign in Nevada and as attorney general in the state, announced a lawsuit two days after the 2020 election that tried to overturn the election. Next, in the Republican GOP primary for governor, it looks likely that Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo will advance as both the Nevada Independent and Decision Desk HQ have called the race for Lombardo. Lombardo had Trump’s endorsement as well, but notably, he was not the most pro-election fraud candidate in this race.

Meanwhile, in Nevada’s secretary of state race, the race’s biggest Big Lie believer, Jim Marchant, is also expected to advance. The AP has called this race for him, and as mentioned earlier on the live blog, Marchant wants to ban the use of electronic voting machines, mail voting and early voting and has also said that he would not have certified the 2020 election. It’s a closer race in the GOP primary for attorney general. There, Sigal Chattah, who has staked out some extreme positions like wanting to prosecute women who get abortions, despite abortion being protected in Nevada, is currently leading. But more establishment-aligned Tisha Black is not far behind.

Notably, in all of these races, the GOP nominee must first unseat a Democratic incumbent. On the one hand, that might not be that challenging given Nevada’s purplish hue and the fact that the political environment looks likely to favor Republicans. But at the same time, taking down incumbents is still hard, and it could be a tall order come November.

Overall, though, it was a good night for Trump’s endorsed candidates — only one, former state Rep. Katie Arrington lost. Arrington lost to Rep. Nancy Mace, who Trump had tried to take down in South Carolina, but ultimately proved unsuccessful. South Carolina wasn’t a total wash for Trump, though, as Rep. Tim Rice lost to Trump-endorsed challenger state Rep. Russell Fry. It seems as if Rice’s vote to impeach Trump was a bridge too far for Republicans in the state, although as we discussed on the live blog, there are some key differences between Mace’s and Rice’s district, which could account for the different outcomes, too.

The biggest takeaway, though, seems to be that Tuesday was a good night for Republicans across the board. There’s the fact that Trump’s endorsed candidates did well, as did candidates who think that the 2020 election was fraudulent. But there’s also the result in Texas’s 34th special election where Republican Mayra Flores defeated Democrat Dan Sanchez, flipping the seat from blue to red.

As we wrote on the live blog, there are plenty of reasons to think that this victory will be short-lived as the 34th is about to become a whole lot more Democratic-leaning come November, but in the short-term expect Republicans to add this to their list of victories coming out of this Tuesday night.

By contrast, only three candidates who have acknowledged the legitimacy of the 2020 election won Republican primaries tonight. And Rep. Nancy Mace was the only one who won a Republican primary that was explicitly fought along Trump/anti-Trump lines.

Eleven candidates who have flirted with or fully embraced the Big Lie have won or are currently leading their primaries today. That includes Republican nominees for important races such as Nevada governor and secretary of state.

Gilbert, an attendee at the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol who actually got an endorsement from the Nevada GOP, is running roughly 20 points behind Lombardo in the Republican primary for governor. But he’s already arguing that he’s losing because of voter fraud, which of course there is absolutely no evidence of — one consistent theme in Gilbert’s election fraud claims.

If we give him Lombardo, Trump’s endorsees have won six of seven contested primaries tonight. It should be noted, though, that Trump endorsed Lombardo after Lombardo started leading in the polls, so Trump can’t really claim credit for his win.

In a sign of where things are heading in Nevada’a GOP primary for governor, the Nevada Independent has called the race for Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo. Per ABC’s numbers, Lombardo holds about a two-to-one lead over attorney and former boxer Joey Gilbert, 44 percent to 22 percent. Gilbert has carried a number of the sparsely-populated rural counties, but Lombardo’s big lead in Clark (home to Las Vegas) has given him a big lead.

You may not have been watching the Nevada treasurer’s race very closely, but the current leader of the Republican primary there is a notable name: Las Vegas City Councilwoman Michele Fiore. Fiore is a huge gun-rights supporter who once posed for a pin-up calendar with herself holding several guns, including assault rifles, and she has also expressed sympathy for anti-government militias.

Amodei continues to lead in Nevada’s 2nd District GOP primary, although we still only have 9 percent of the expected vote in. He holds about a 25-point lead over Tarkanian.

In Nevada’s GOP primary for governor, Lombardo continues to lead handily. But looking at the county-level results, the hardcore Trumpist Gilbert has the edge in the peripheral rural counties, which is interesting. Nevertheless, he can’t match Lombardo’s showing in Clark County, which is understandable — Lombardo is the county sheriff there — and given that Clark makes up a slightly majority of the vote in most GOP statewide primaries, that may be all Lombardo needs.

In the Republican primary for attorney general, Sigal Chattah — who has staked out some extreme positions like wanting to prosecute women who get abortions, despite abortion being protected in Nevada — is currently leading with 48 percent. More establishment-aligned Tisha Black is not far behind, however, with 44 percent. Bear in mind that these results are just from Clark County; northern Nevada may have voted differently.

Yeah, Geoffrey, he really impressed folks with his campaign, coming out of nowhere to raise $4 million and give the scion of a Nevada political dynasty a genuine race. He has quite a personal story, too, having been badly burned by a roadside bomb in Afghanistan.

I was going to say something similar, Geoffrey. Laxalt was always the front-runner in that primary, but Brown did still mount a pretty impressive challenge.

My guess is we haven’t heard the last of Sam Brown, who will finish second to Laxalt in the GOP primary and attracted a fair bit of support from outside groups. Nevada does have another Senate race in two years…

If Becker wins, Sarah, she’ll also add another woman to the GOP’s caucus, which has been a goal of the party’s.

In Nevada’s 4th District GOP primary, Air Force veteran Sam Peters holds a narrow lead over state Assemblywoman Annie Black, 47 percent to 40 percent, with 43 percent of the expected vote reporting. The winner will face Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford, who might prefer to face Black, who is a weaker fundraiser than Peters and is a major proponent of the Big Lie.

And as Meredith wrote earlier April Becker was the clear front-runner in that race with support from E-PAC, VIEW PAC, Maggie’s List, Winning for Women and the National Republican Congressional Committee.

And the race calls are coming fast and furious now: ABC News is reporting that the 3rd District Republican primary has been called for Becker. She’ll face Democratic Rep. Susie Lee in this competitive (D+2) seat in the fall.

Our colleague Kaleigh signed off earlier, but Nevada is really the state to watch tonight with a number of prominent Big Lie candidates running. Right now, Marchant, Laxalt and Lombardo, all Big Lie believers, are leading in their races.

It’s early with only about 5 percent of the expected vote reporting, but GOP Rep. Mark Amodei leads challenger Danny Tarkanian 53 percent to 32 percent in Nevada’s 2nd District Republican primary.

I had thought that progressive Amy Vilela might be able to sneak up on Rep. Dina Titus in the Democratic primary for the 1st District, but it was not meant to be: Titus currently leads Vilela 84 percent to 16 percent. Our colleagues at ABC News are reporting that the race has been called for the incumbent.

We also have 28 percent of the expected vote counted in the Republican primary for secretary of state, and the race’s biggest Big Lie believer, Jim Marchant, has a 20-point lead. Marchant wants to ban the use of electronic voting machines, mail voting and early voting, and he has also said that he would not have certified the 2020 election.

Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo has an early but pretty commanding lead in the GOP primary for governor. With 30 percent of the expected vote reporting, he’s at about 48 percent, with attorney and former professional boxer Joey Gilbert at 19 percent in second. Down in fourth with only about 9 percent is former U.S. Sen. Dean Heller, who lost reelection for that office in 2018.

With more than half of the expected vote reporting in the Republican primary for Nevada’s 1st District, Mark Robertson leads with 30 percent, while several other candidates are bunched up in the low teens. Robertson is an Army veteran who is one of the race’s top fundraisers and is ideologically aligned with the House Freedom Caucus.

Meanwhile, in the Democratic Senate primary, ABC News is reporting that Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is projected to win that race.

In the Republican primary for U.S. Senate, Adam Laxalt leads Sam Brown 56 percent to 33 percent.

We finally have some results from Nevada! Specifically, Clark County, home of Las Vegas.

Mmmm, Joe Lombardo…

But on the subject of Maine, as you’ve noted before, Nathaniel, Maine is also one of the most rural Democratic-leaning states — even though it doesn’t have much of a lean. Kyle Kondik, my old colleague at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, always likes to point out that Maine’s 2nd District is the largest district by land area east of the Mississippi.

It’s big and rural.

Wooo!! 🎲 Let the games begin finally!! 🎲

Buckle up — we should start getting Nevada results soon.

I think it’ll be competitive, Geoffrey. LePage, of course, won in the red-wave years of 2010 and 2014. In 2010, he got help because the Democratic vote was split, but in 2014 the evidence seems pretty clear that he would have won a head-to-head race too. A lot of people think of Maine as a blue state, but it has a FiveThirtyEight partisan lean of just D+4, and it’s quite elastic. I think Republicans have a decent shot at flipping not just the governor’s office, but the state Senate and state House as well, creating a possible Republican trifecta.

Nathaniel, you’re a New Englander — any thoughts on the Maine gubernatorial race between Democratic Gov. Janet Mills and former Gov. Paul LePage, the Republican who some (including himself, I think) called Trump before Trump?

Still waiting for Nevada results, but in the meantime, Rep. William Timmons has avoided a runoff in South Carolina’s 4th District; the AP just called the GOP primary for him. However, he’s still pulling an unimpressive 53 percent of the vote.

Yessss, Meena! A candidate who unites the coasts!

I’m late to the party but I would win with 372 electoral votes. Please don’t judge my lack of road trips.

Nevada might be about to do the American equivalent of that thing where all the British parliamentary candidates stand on stage and the results of the entire election are read out to them.

We secretly were hoping our nonsensical game would give Nevada ample time to tally up those results… but we’re still holding out hope for a big vote dump soon!

It is the Garden State for a reason. Lots of pretty stuff in New Jersey, it’s not just the Atlantic City boardwalk and the turnpike.

To all our New Jersey readers, Nathaniel knows not what he says! You are more than the turnpike!

Yeah, but if you’ve driven on the Jersey Turnpike, you’ve experienced New Jersey. ducks

I wouldn’t say I’ve really been to New Jersey. I’ve visited it sure, but not experienced it really.

Wait, Sarah, you’ve never been to New Jersey?!

Impressive, Nathaniel and Geoffrey. My win would also technically be a landslide — 376 electoral votes, but not as sizable as y’alls. But perhaps I have a more stringent definition of what it means to visit a state. Then again… maybe my memory is terrible.

Who can say?! My platform would obviously be largely informed by Daylight Savings Time, because Veep is how politics actually works.

I unfortunately came up a little short of Nathaniel, garnering 463 electoral votes. But I am going to Hawaii next year! Gotta also make a campaign trip to the northwest, just losing all kinds of support there.

I would win in a landslide — 477 electoral votes! In case you’re wondering, I would run under the banner of the BEDTIME (Bring Election Day Tallying Into Much Earlier) Party, whose color is purple.

OK, it’s that time in the evening where we can get a little loopy as we wait for results. But tonight’s activity is to post electoral maps of which states we’ve visited to see who would win the race for president. Inspired by this tweet:

There are a ton of races to watch in Nevada, but honestly my favorite might be the GOP primary in Nevada’s 2nd District. There, Republican Rep. Mark Amodei faces a primary challenge from Douglas County Commissioner Danny Tarkanian. But as anyone who has followed Nevada politics knows, Tarkanian challenges the boundaries of the term “perennial candidate.” He has high name recognition as the son of famous University of Nevada, Las Vegas, men’s basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian. But until 2020, he routinely lost every Nevada race he ran in. Here’s his track record:

• 2004 State Senate: Lost general
• 2006 Secretary of state: Lost general
• 2010 U.S. Senate: Lost primary
• 2012 4th Congressional District: Lost general
• 2016 3rd Congressional District: Lost general
• 2018 3rd Congressional District: Lost general

But in 2020, he finally broke through, winning a seat on the Douglas County commission in northwest Nevada near Reno and the state capital of Carson City, far from his old Las Vegas home base. So naturally, he immediately turned his sights on Amodei and the red 2nd District this cycle.

It looks like it could be another 30 minutes until we get any Nevada results.