As of right now, Republicans are outperforming the partisan lean of Texas’s 34th District by 10 percentage points. That’s a great result for them — but it’s also just one election. When you look at all federal special elections since Biden took office, you can find examples of both parties overperforming. On average, Republicans have overperformed by 2 percentage points, implying a slightly, but not overwhelmingly, Republican-leaning political environment. (FWIW, that’s what generic-ballot polls say too.)
2021-22 special elections have been a mixed bag
How the final vote-share margins in federal special elections in the 2022 cycle compare with the seats’ FiveThirtyEight partisan leans
| Date | Seat | Partisan Lean | Vote Margin | Margin Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 20, 2021 | Louisiana 2nd* | D+51 | D+66 | D+15 |
| March 20, 2021 | Louisiana 5th* | R+31 | R+45 | R+13 |
| May 1, 2021 | Texas 6th* | R+11 | R+25 | R+14 |
| June 1, 2021 | New Mexico 1st | D+18 | D+25 | D+7 |
| Nov. 2, 2021 | Ohio 11th | D+57 | D+58 | EVEN |
| Nov. 2, 2021 | Ohio 15th | R+19 | R+17 | D+2 |
| Jan. 11, 2022 | Florida 20th | D+53 | D+60 | D+7 |
| June 7, 2022 | California 22nd | R+11 | R+24 | R+13 |
| June 14, 2022 | Texas 34th* | D+5 | R+5 | R+10 |
| Average | D+12 | D+10 | R+2 |