I mean, losing four seats this cycle is a pretty straightforward result this cycle for Democrats. Lose the three we talked about — Arizona, Georgia and Nevada — while losing one of the other potentially competitive seats like New Hampshire or Colorado. It’s rare for the president’s party to pick up an open seat in a swing state like Pennsylvania, so that might be a false hope for Democrats in the end. Then in 2024, Democrats will have to defend Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia — which will all be super difficult to hold — plus swing seats in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Lose three of those swing seats along with the three redder seats and that’s 60 seats for the GOP. This isn’t much of a stretch.
