FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich

What We’re Watching In South Carolina Tonight

The polls have just closed in South Carolina, where we are watching two Trump-endorsed primary challenges to Republican incumbent representatives:

  • 1st District Rep. Nancy Mace made an enemy out of Trump when she blamed him for inciting the Jan. 6 insurrection, and the former president has since endorsed former state Rep. Katie Arrington. However, Mace has far outraised Arrington, and the latest poll of the race gave her a 46 percent to 41 percent edge.
  • 7th District Rep. Tom Rice went even further than Mace, voting to impeach Trump for his role in Jan. 6, and has not shied away from his criticism of Trump the way Mace has. Unsurprisingly, Rice appears to be in more danger of losing tonight. Although five Republicans are running against Rice, support coalesced around state Rep. Russell Fry after Trump endorsed him in February. The latest poll gave Fry a 42 percent to 25 percent lead.

It’s possible that one, or both, of these races will go to a runoff if no candidate receives at least a majority of the vote. If that happens, the runoff(s) will be held on June 28.


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