FiveThirtyEight
Sarah Frostenson Nathaniel Rakich Geoffrey Skelley

Well, it took longer than expected to get results in Nevada thanks to a state law that stipulates that no results can be released until everyone in line to vote has voted. But at long last we got results and we’re calling it a night, as we’ve got a pretty good sense at this point on where most of the major races are going to end up. Additionally, we can see the headline coming out of the Silver State on Tuesday. And that is, in four of Nevada’s statewide races, it looks likely that a candidate who backs Trump’s fraudulent claim that the 2020 election was stolen will advance.

First, in the U.S. Senate primary, former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt has advanced. Laxalt had Trump’s endorsement, was a co-chair of Trump’s 2020 campaign in Nevada and as attorney general in the state, announced a lawsuit two days after the 2020 election that tried to overturn the election. Next, in the Republican GOP primary for governor, it looks likely that Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo will advance as both the Nevada Independent and Decision Desk HQ have called the race for Lombardo. Lombardo had Trump’s endorsement as well, but notably, he was not the most pro-election fraud candidate in this race.

Meanwhile, in Nevada’s secretary of state race, the race’s biggest Big Lie believer, Jim Marchant, is also expected to advance. The AP has called this race for him, and as mentioned earlier on the live blog, Marchant wants to ban the use of electronic voting machines, mail voting and early voting and has also said that he would not have certified the 2020 election. It’s a closer race in the GOP primary for attorney general. There, Sigal Chattah, who has staked out some extreme positions like wanting to prosecute women who get abortions, despite abortion being protected in Nevada, is currently leading. But more establishment-aligned Tisha Black is not far behind.

Notably, in all of these races, the GOP nominee must first unseat a Democratic incumbent. On the one hand, that might not be that challenging given Nevada’s purplish hue and the fact that the political environment looks likely to favor Republicans. But at the same time, taking down incumbents is still hard, and it could be a tall order come November.

Overall, though, it was a good night for Trump’s endorsed candidates — only one, former state Rep. Katie Arrington lost. Arrington lost to Rep. Nancy Mace, who Trump had tried to take down in South Carolina, but ultimately proved unsuccessful. South Carolina wasn’t a total wash for Trump, though, as Rep. Tim Rice lost to Trump-endorsed challenger state Rep. Russell Fry. It seems as if Rice’s vote to impeach Trump was a bridge too far for Republicans in the state, although as we discussed on the live blog, there are some key differences between Mace’s and Rice’s district, which could account for the different outcomes, too.

The biggest takeaway, though, seems to be that Tuesday was a good night for Republicans across the board. There’s the fact that Trump’s endorsed candidates did well, as did candidates who think that the 2020 election was fraudulent. But there’s also the result in Texas’s 34th special election where Republican Mayra Flores defeated Democrat Dan Sanchez, flipping the seat from blue to red.

As we wrote on the live blog, there are plenty of reasons to think that this victory will be short-lived as the 34th is about to become a whole lot more Democratic-leaning come November, but in the short-term expect Republicans to add this to their list of victories coming out of this Tuesday night.


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