FiveThirtyEight
Sarah Frostenson Nathaniel Rakich Geoffrey Skelley

Well, it took longer than expected to get results in Nevada thanks to a state law that stipulates that no results can be released until everyone in line to vote has voted. But at long last we got results and we’re calling it a night, as we’ve got a pretty good sense at this point on where most of the major races are going to end up. Additionally, we can see the headline coming out of the Silver State on Tuesday. And that is, in four of Nevada’s statewide races, it looks likely that a candidate who backs Trump’s fraudulent claim that the 2020 election was stolen will advance.

First, in the U.S. Senate primary, former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt has advanced. Laxalt had Trump’s endorsement, was a co-chair of Trump’s 2020 campaign in Nevada and as attorney general in the state, announced a lawsuit two days after the 2020 election that tried to overturn the election. Next, in the Republican GOP primary for governor, it looks likely that Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo will advance as both the Nevada Independent and Decision Desk HQ have called the race for Lombardo. Lombardo had Trump’s endorsement as well, but notably, he was not the most pro-election fraud candidate in this race.

Meanwhile, in Nevada’s secretary of state race, the race’s biggest Big Lie believer, Jim Marchant, is also expected to advance. The AP has called this race for him, and as mentioned earlier on the live blog, Marchant wants to ban the use of electronic voting machines, mail voting and early voting and has also said that he would not have certified the 2020 election. It’s a closer race in the GOP primary for attorney general. There, Sigal Chattah, who has staked out some extreme positions like wanting to prosecute women who get abortions, despite abortion being protected in Nevada, is currently leading. But more establishment-aligned Tisha Black is not far behind.

Notably, in all of these races, the GOP nominee must first unseat a Democratic incumbent. On the one hand, that might not be that challenging given Nevada’s purplish hue and the fact that the political environment looks likely to favor Republicans. But at the same time, taking down incumbents is still hard, and it could be a tall order come November.

Overall, though, it was a good night for Trump’s endorsed candidates — only one, former state Rep. Katie Arrington lost. Arrington lost to Rep. Nancy Mace, who Trump had tried to take down in South Carolina, but ultimately proved unsuccessful. South Carolina wasn’t a total wash for Trump, though, as Rep. Tim Rice lost to Trump-endorsed challenger state Rep. Russell Fry. It seems as if Rice’s vote to impeach Trump was a bridge too far for Republicans in the state, although as we discussed on the live blog, there are some key differences between Mace’s and Rice’s district, which could account for the different outcomes, too.

The biggest takeaway, though, seems to be that Tuesday was a good night for Republicans across the board. There’s the fact that Trump’s endorsed candidates did well, as did candidates who think that the 2020 election was fraudulent. But there’s also the result in Texas’s 34th special election where Republican Mayra Flores defeated Democrat Dan Sanchez, flipping the seat from blue to red.

As we wrote on the live blog, there are plenty of reasons to think that this victory will be short-lived as the 34th is about to become a whole lot more Democratic-leaning come November, but in the short-term expect Republicans to add this to their list of victories coming out of this Tuesday night.

Nathaniel Rakich

By contrast, only three candidates who have acknowledged the legitimacy of the 2020 election won Republican primaries tonight. And Rep. Nancy Mace was the only one who won a Republican primary that was explicitly fought along Trump/anti-Trump lines.

How Big Lie opponents are doing tonight

Senate, House, gubernatorial, attorney general and secretary of state candidates who have accepted the legitimacy of the 2020 election, and their results in Republican primaries in Maine, Nevada, North Dakota and South Carolina, as of 1:35 a.m. Eastern

CANDIDATE OFFICE Big Lie Position % REPORTING VOTE SHARE STATUS
John Hoeven* ND Sen. ✅ Accepted 2020 results 73% 78.4% ✓ Won
Marvin Lepp ND SoS 🤔 Accepted with reservations 64 32.2 ✗ Lost
Kelly Armstrong* ND-AL ✅ Accepted 2020 results 70 100.0 ✓ Won
William “Bill” Hockstedler NV Sen. ✅ Accepted 2020 results 37 1.5 ✗ Lost
Kristopher Dahir NV SoS 🤔 Accepted with reservations 36 5.7 Trailing
Cresent Hardy NV-01 🤔 Accepted with reservations 56 12.7 Trailing
Jane Adams NV-01 🤔 Accepted with reservations 56 5.4 Trailing
Danny Tarkanian NV-02 🤔 Accepted with reservations 14 30.9 Trailing
John Kovacs NV-03 🤔 Accepted with reservations 53 10.9 ✗ Lost
Lauren Martel SC AG 🤔 Accepted with reservations 87 34.3 ✗ Lost
Nancy Mace* SC-01 ✅ Accepted 2020 results 93 53.1 ✓ Won
Tom Rice* SC-07 🤔 Accepted with reservations 99 24.7 ✗ Lost

*Incumbent.

Candidates marked as having “accepted 2020 results” have said Donald Trump’s loss or the 2020 election itself was legitimate. Candidates marked as “accepted with reservations” have accepted Trump’s loss and the election’s legitimacy but have still raised questions about whether there was voter fraud.

Sources: News reports, campaigns, ABC News

Nathaniel Rakich

Eleven candidates who have flirted with or fully embraced the Big Lie have won or are currently leading their primaries today. That includes Republican nominees for important races such as Nevada governor and secretary of state.

How Big Lie supporters are doing tonight

Senate, House, gubernatorial, attorney general and secretary of state candidates who have either denied or questioned the legitimacy of the 2020 election, and their results in Republican primaries in Maine, Nevada, North Dakota and South Carolina, as of 1:35 a.m. Eastern

CANDIDATE OFFICE Big Lie Position % REPORTING VOTE SHARE STATUS
Elizabeth Caruso ME-02 ❓Raised doubts 40% 39.4% ✗ Lost
Adam Laxalt NV Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 37 55.5 ✓ Won
Sam Brown NV Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 37 33.4 ✗ Lost
Sharelle Mendenhall NV Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 37 3.2 ✗ Lost
William “Bill” Conrad NV Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 37 1.8 ✗ Lost
Joe Lombardo NV Gov. ❓Raised doubts 37 43.1 Leading
Joey Gilbert NV Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 37 22.2 Trailing
Dean Heller NV Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 37 11.8 Trailing
Guy Nohra NV Gov. ❓Raised doubts 37 4.1 Trailing
Tom Heck NV Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 37 1.9 Trailing
Fred Simon NV Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 37 1.3 Trailing
Eddie “Mr. Fix It Now” Hamilton NV Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 37 0.7 Trailing
Jim Marchant NV SoS 🚫 Denied legitimacy 36 37.3 Leading
Jesse Haw NV SoS ❓Raised doubts 36 18.9 Trailing
Richard Scotti NV SoS ❓Raised doubts 36 17.0 Trailing
Gerard Ramalho NV SoS ❓Raised doubts 36 5.6 Trailing
Socorro Keenan NV SoS 🚫 Denied legitimacy 36 2.1 Trailing
Sigal Chattah NV AG ❓Raised doubts 36 48.3 Leading
Tisha Black NV AG ❓Raised doubts 36 42.6 Trailing
Mark Robertson NV-01 ❓Raised doubts 56 30.2 Leading
Carolina Andrea Serrano NV-01 ❓Raised doubts 56 15.0 Trailing
Cynthia Dianne Steel NV-01 ❓Raised doubts 56 12.8 Trailing
Morgun Sholty NV-01 ❓Raised doubts 56 5.5 Trailing
Joel Beck NV-02 🚫 Denied legitimacy 14 7.5 Trailing
Catherine Marie Sampson NV-02 ❓Raised doubts 14 4.2 Trailing
April Becker NV-03 🚫 Denied legitimacy 53 67.5 ✓ Won
Clark Bossert NV-03 🚫 Denied legitimacy 53 9.4 ✗ Lost
Noah V. Malgeri NV-03 🚫 Denied legitimacy 53 7.8 ✗ Lost
Sam Peters NV-04 🚫 Denied legitimacy 51 48.2 Leading
Ann “Annie” Black NV-04 🚫 Denied legitimacy 51 39.8 Trailing
Henry McMaster* SC Gov. ❓Raised doubts 92 83.3 ✓ Won
Keith Blandford SC SoS 🚫 Denied legitimacy 87 24.5 ✗ Lost
Alan Wilson* SC AG 🚫 Denied legitimacy 87 65.7 ✓ Won
Katie Arrington SC-01 🚫 Denied legitimacy 93 45.3 ✗ Lost
Lynz Piper-Loomis SC-01 🚫 Denied legitimacy 93 1.6 ✗ Lost
William Timmons* SC-04 🚫 Denied legitimacy 99 52.7 ✓ Won
Mark Burns SC-04 🚫 Denied legitimacy 99 23.8 ✗ Lost
Michael Mike LaPierre SC-04 🚫 Denied legitimacy 99 17.1 ✗ Lost
A. Sonia Morris SC-06 🚫 Denied legitimacy 58 25.6 ✗ Lost
Russell Fry SC-07 🚫 Denied legitimacy 99 51.0 ✓ Won
Barbara Arthur SC-07 ❓Raised doubts 99 12.2 ✗ Lost
Ken Richardson SC-07 🚫 Denied legitimacy 99 7.0 ✗ Lost
Garrett Barton SC-07 🚫 Denied legitimacy 99 2.5 ✗ Lost
Mark McBride SC-07 🚫 Denied legitimacy 99 2.1 ✗ Lost

*Incumbent.

Excludes the following candidates running unopposed: Rep. Joe Wilson (SC-02), Rep. Jeff Duncan (SC-03) and Rep. Ralph Norman (SC-05), who have denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election, as well as Edwin Thelander (ME-01), Paul LePage (ME Gov.) and Sen. Tim Scott (SC Sen.), who have raised doubts.

Candidates marked as having “denied legitimacy” of the 2020 election either explicitly said Donald Trump’s loss or the 2020 election itself was illegitimate or, if an elected official, took legal measures to try and overturn the election. Candidates marked as “raised doubts” have questioned the fairness of the 2020 election or made references to “election integrity” but have not explicitly said the election or Trump’s loss was illegitimate.

Sources: News reports, campaigns, ABC News


Exit mobile version