Updated |
What Went Down In The 2020 Nevada Caucuses
The good news for Sanders keeps coming as he’s benefited the most from realignment. Steyer has lost the most:
How Nevada’s votes have changed during realignment
With 10 percent of precincts reporting
| CANDIDATE | FIRST ALIGNMENT | FINAL ALIGNMENT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sanders | 34.5% | 41.5% | +7.0 |
| Biden | 16.8 | 18.6 | +1.8 |
| Buttigieg | 15.5 | 16.8 | +1.3 |
| Warren | 12.9 | 10.8 | -2.1 |
| Klobuchar | 9.7 | 7.3 | -2.4 |
| Steyer | 8.9 | 4.3 | -4.6 |
| Uncommitted | 0.6 | 0.4 | -0.2 |
| Gabbard | 0.5 | 0.1 | -0.4 |
Nate, the results so far seem to be pretty well in line with what our Nevada forecast predicted. Does that mean that (assuming these results hold) the top-line forecast numbers won’t change much?
The basic takeaway here is that it’s Sanders’s nomination to lose. Exactly how big his margin is, who finishes second, etc., may tell us something about precisely how likely he is to lose it and who is most likely to take it away from him. But it’s his nomination to lose.