What Went Down In The 2020 Nevada Caucuses

Nate, the results so far seem to be pretty well in line with what our Nevada forecast predicted. Does that mean that (assuming these results hold) the top-line forecast numbers won’t change much?

The basic takeaway here is that it’s Sanders’s nomination to lose. Exactly how big his margin is, who finishes second, etc., may tell us something about precisely how likely he is to lose it and who is most likely to take it away from him. But it’s his nomination to lose.

ABC News is now projecting, based on their analysis of the vote so far, that Sanders will win the Nevada Caucuses.