What Went Down In The 2020 Nevada Caucuses

I think that’s right, Nate. But as you said earlier, the margin here could matter for Sanders. Is it a 20+ margin, or a 10+ margin? Though my guess is it might matter more for Biden than Sanders.

We don’t call races here at FiveThirtyEight, but I have no problem with NBC calling it for Sanders. Even though there’s a lot of uncertainty about how big Sanders’s margin will be, who will finish in second place, etc., he has a huge cushion, all of the indicators (including the entrance poll) point in the same direction, and it’s just hard to imagine any scenario in which he loses.

It does look like Biden is treating Nevada as a win, Geoffrey. Before his speech was cut off, a supporter yelled “The Comeback Kid.” I’m not sure I’d call it that yet, but according to preliminary entrance poll results, he led with black voters in the state — maybe not by as much as he’d like, but still by enough that he should at least be feeling OK about South Carolina. Of course, much depends on how the press treats this.