What Went Down In The 2020 Nevada Caucuses

ABC News is now projecting, based on their analysis of the vote so far, that Sanders will win the Nevada Caucuses.

I think that’s right, Nate. But as you said earlier, the margin here could matter for Sanders. Is it a 20+ margin, or a 10+ margin? Though my guess is it might matter more for Biden than Sanders.

We don’t call races here at FiveThirtyEight, but I have no problem with NBC calling it for Sanders. Even though there’s a lot of uncertainty about how big Sanders’s margin will be, who will finish in second place, etc., he has a huge cushion, all of the indicators (including the entrance poll) point in the same direction, and it’s just hard to imagine any scenario in which he loses.