What Went Down In The 2020 Nevada Caucuses

The problem for Buttigieg, even if he finishes in second, is that it looks like he is going to finish way behind Sanders and significantly behind Biden among nonwhite voters, per the preliminary entrance polls. Perhaps those numbers change as the night goes on, but he is in the single digits among nonwhite voters right now. This was a theoretical issue that his campaign could downplay before. Now we have had an election in a state with lots of black and Latino voters, and all signs indicate that they have not backed him. It’s looks like he is not just the candidate of college-educated white voters, in that in Iowa, New Hampshire and now Nevada his numbers are also decent among white voters without a college degree. But people in the Democratic establishment, after Iowa and New Hampshire, have largely endorsed either Biden or Bloomberg and not Buttigieg. I think the bet is that Buttigieg won’t ever broaden his coalition and Biden and Bloomberg at least have the potential to do so. For now, that bet looks correct. Buttigieg has a chance of being in the top two in three states in a row and not becoming the establishment’s anti-Sanders candidate, and I think that has a lot to do with perceived and actual weaknesses he has with nonwhite voters.

I know we’re all anxious for results, but I will re-post another Iowa tweet:

Micah, 2020 art direction is all about that Scooby Doo-style peek!