What Went Down In The 2020 Nevada Caucuses

The thing about those Buttigieg claims though is that there’s likely a lot of selection bias in where they have precinct captains feeding results to them. That is, Buttigieg is presumably more likely to have precinct captains in places that are strong Buttigieg precincts.

You wonder why the Biden team isn’t making claims to second place even though most of the numbers we’ve seen seem slightly better for him than for Buttigieg. Perhaps because the two candidates have different expectations to play to.

This happened in Iowa, too, Clare — the campaigns released their own vote tallies because it was crickets from official sources. As in Iowa, we recommend taking these numbers with a considerable grain of salt; the campaign wouldn’t be releasing them if they weren’t good for them.