FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich

Micah, if Iowa holds a caucus but it’s just a beauty contest — i.e., not worth any delegates — does it count for the purposes of your over/under??

Geoffrey Skelley

The thing with Iowa is, the GOP sounds inclined to have its caucuses again. Even if the DNC hands down delegate penalties to Iowa for refusing to change its method or something, Democrats may choose to just hold their caucuses anyway. There will be so much media coverage of Iowa on the GOP side that the Democratic contest will get a ton of attention even if it doesn’t affect delegates because of national party penalties.

Nathaniel Rakich

Remember, guys, that about half of Iowa Democrats wanted to switch to a primary (to maximize participation) before the Iowa debacle!


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