What Went Down In The 2020 Nevada Caucuses
Fair point about the Nevada results possibly being a bad sign for Bloomberg, Nate, but Steyer is also polling at 2 percent nationally while Bloomberg sits at roughly 17 percent. But of course, disclaimer: We have no polls that were conducted entirely after the last debate. So Bloomberg’s fortunes could be in decline, but also maybe not!?! 🙃
According to preliminary entrance polls, Sanders is essentially tied with Buttigieg among white college graduates, but his advantage is larger among white non-college voters and non-white college voters, and he’s also leading heavily among non-white non-college voters. Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Warren, on the other hand, are strongest among white college graduates. Biden’s support is actually somewhat evenly spread.
Candidate preference by race and education
Chosen candidate in the 2020 Nevada Democratic caucus by race and education, according to preliminary exit poll data
| White | Non-white | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | College graduates | Non-college graduates | College graduates | Non-college graduates |
| Sanders | 23% | 36% | 35% | 50% |
| Buttigieg | 20 | 18 | 9 | 6 |
| Klobuchar | 17 | 11 | 7 | 3 |
| Warren | 16 | 12 | 14 | 5 |
| Biden | 14 | 12 | 21 | 21 |
| Steyer | 6 | 9 | 9 | 12 |
| Uncommitted | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Gabbard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
As an example of the kind of issues caucus sites might be having, I’ve seen reports (on Twitter and in The Washington Post) of caucusgoers who were confused about what happens to early votes after first alignment for voters supporting a nonviable candidate. Basically, if they can attract in-person votes to become viable, they keep their early votes plus any new early votes that are realigned from another nonviable candidate. If they can’t become viable, their early votes get redistributed to the next viable candidate on each ballot. (Simple, right? 😐)