FiveThirtyEight
Kaleigh Rogers

As an example of the kind of issues caucus sites might be having, I’ve seen reports (on Twitter and in The Washington Post) of caucusgoers who were confused about what happens to early votes after first alignment for voters supporting a nonviable candidate. Basically, if they can attract in-person votes to become viable, they keep their early votes plus any new early votes that are realigned from another nonviable candidate. If they can’t become viable, their early votes get redistributed to the next viable candidate on each ballot. (Simple, right? 😐)

Kaleigh Rogers

I think Iowa will cling on to its caucuses for dear life, in spite of everything, but maybe I’m just cynical.

Geoffrey Skelley

Nevada might switch to a primary because you could imagine there being enough of a push to pass a state law to move to a state-run primary, or even to just commit to a party-run primary. Nevadans don’t have a long connection to a caucus the way Iowans do. Technically, Wyoming still has a caucus, and North Dakota is still using that language, though it’s really more of a party-run primary. I will cautiously go with the over because I think Iowa will use caucuses again in 2024 and some other state will, too.


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