FiveThirtyEight
Clare Malone

I actually think Iowa is the one that, at least on the Democratic side of things, will for sure get rid of the caucuses. They fired their executive director following the debacle, people inside the party told me morale was really low after the caucuses, and the Democratic Party at a national level doesn’t seem like it wants to tolerate a first-vote state that’s prone to chaos.

Sarah Frostenson

Fair point about the Nevada results possibly being a bad sign for Bloomberg, Nate, but Steyer is also polling at 2 percent nationally while Bloomberg sits at roughly 17 percent. But of course, disclaimer: We have no polls that were conducted entirely after the last debate. So Bloomberg’s fortunes could be in decline, but also maybe not!?! 🙃

Laura Bronner

According to preliminary entrance polls, Sanders is essentially tied with Buttigieg among white college graduates, but his advantage is larger among white non-college voters and non-white college voters, and he’s also leading heavily among non-white non-college voters. Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Warren, on the other hand, are strongest among white college graduates. Biden’s support is actually somewhat evenly spread.

Candidate preference by race and education

Chosen candidate in the 2020 Nevada Democratic caucus by race and education, according to preliminary exit poll data

White Non-white
Candidate College graduates Non-college graduates College graduates Non-college graduates
Sanders 23% 36% 35% 50%
Buttigieg 20 18 9 6
Klobuchar 17 11 7 3
Warren 16 12 14 5
Biden 14 12 21 21
Steyer 6 9 9 12
Uncommitted 3 0 2 2
Gabbard 0 1 0 1

Sample size is 2,746.

Source: ABC News/Edison Research


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