FiveThirtyEight
Micah Cohen

Over/under for how many caucuses will be held in 2024: 1.5. (Not counting territories.)

And for readers:

Nate Silver

Steyer getting only 9 percent of the first-alignment vote so far in both the AP and the Edison counts should not exactly inspire confidence in Bloomberg. Steyer is very present here on commercials, on billboards, with volunteers, etc., and it suggests there are upper bounds on how far an ad-driven campaign can take you.

Nathaniel Rakich

I realllllly hate to cry wolf here, but that sounds an awful lot like what happened in Iowa, Kaleigh — just with early-voting confusion replacing app confusion. Iowa Democrats also claimed to have been holding onto the results before releasing them so that they could conduct “quality control.”


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