FiveThirtyEight
Kaleigh Rogers

There are at least six anecdotal reports of precincts where confusion about the rules and incorporating early vote has caused a delay in reporting, according to reporting from ABC News. This was something I anticipated, as the rules were opaque at best. Nathaniel and I both pored over these rules in the past few days and we’re still confused about some details today. Though to be fair, we didn’t get the training that caucus volunteers got, which might have been easier to understand.

Laura Bronner

As in Iowa and New Hampshire, Sanders seems to have done particularly well among young voters, getting 66 percent support among those under 30 and almost half of those between the ages of 30 and 45. But he’s also leading among voters between the ages of 45 and 65, albeit by a lesser margin. Biden and Klobuchar, it’s worth pointing out, have the opposite age gradient, doing best with older voters. Warren and Buttigieg’s performance is more evenly spread across the different age groups.

Candidate preference by age

Chosen candidate in the 2020 Nevada Democratic caucus by age group, according to preliminary exit poll data

Candidate 17-29 30-44 45-64 65 or over
Sanders 66% 48% 26% 12%
Buttigieg 10 15 17 14
Biden 9 7 16 28
Warren 6 17 14 10
Klobuchar 2 5 11 20
Steyer 3 4 11 13
Uncommitted 1 1 3 2
Gabbard 2 1 0 0

Sample size is 2,746.

Source: ABC News/Edison Research

Nate Silver

Yep, I think that’s right, Micah. Although it’s also worth noting that Hispanic and black voters aren’t a monolith. In Nevada, Hispanics are quite young, progressive and working-class, which helps Bernie. It’s not necessarily the same in, for example, Florida.


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