What Went Down In The 2020 Nevada Caucuses

Earlier, I noted that 76 percent of Nevada voters who are registered Democrats live in Clark County, home to Las Vegas. But according to the preliminary entrance poll, 68 percent of caucusgoers came from Clark County, so perhaps fewer than you might expect given registration numbers. The preliminary entrance poll found that another 21 percent came from Washoe County (home to Reno) while the remaining 10 percent came from other parts of the state.

Actually, I think those numbers from the AP are not as far along as they claim. They’re only reporting a few thousand votes, so I don’t see how they could be 19 percent of the total vote.

Klobuchar and Warren are at risk of something that would clearly have hurt Harris if she’d stayed in the race: losing their home states. I don’t know what they’ll do, but if they drop out before Super Tuesday (Massachusetts and Minnesota both vote that day), they can at least claim they would have won their states if they had not suspended their campaigns. A UMass Lowell poll released this week had Klobuchar leading Minnesota with 27 percent, but Sanders at 21 percent. Sanders (21) and Warren (20) were effectively tied at the top in the UMass poll of Massachusetts. I haven’t seen a good recent poll of Vermont (also on Super Tuesday), but I would assume Sanders is a heavy favorite there. Remember in 2016 that Rubio dropped out after Trump won Florida. Super Tuesday was already likely to cause some winnowing, but the prospect of a candidate or two losing her home state makes that even more likely.