What Went Down In The 2020 Nevada Caucuses

Klobuchar and Warren are at risk of something that would clearly have hurt Harris if she’d stayed in the race: losing their home states. I don’t know what they’ll do, but if they drop out before Super Tuesday (Massachusetts and Minnesota both vote that day), they can at least claim they would have won their states if they had not suspended their campaigns. A UMass Lowell poll released this week had Klobuchar leading Minnesota with 27 percent, but Sanders at 21 percent. Sanders (21) and Warren (20) were effectively tied at the top in the UMass poll of Massachusetts. I haven’t seen a good recent poll of Vermont (also on Super Tuesday), but I would assume Sanders is a heavy favorite there. Remember in 2016 that Rubio dropped out after Trump won Florida. Super Tuesday was already likely to cause some winnowing, but the prospect of a candidate or two losing her home state makes that even more likely.

Fifty-two percent of caucusgoers have a college degree, according to preliminary entrance polling; that’s lower than in New Hampshire and about the same as in Iowa, but actually higher than it was in Nevada in 2016, when it was just 46 percent. But most candidates don’t have a huge education split in their support here; Sanders, who is doing better with non-college-educated voters than college-educated voters, is an exception.

So maybe the Culinary union isn’t all-powerful?