What Went Down In The 2020 Nevada Caucuses
There are a few sources for election-night results. The state party’s website currently lists no votes yet counted, but the Associated Press is reporting a handful of precincts — specifically, 1 percent of precincts are reporting the county delegate results (one of the three measures of Nevada results we’ll get tonight). It looks like a few more precincts are reporting the first-alignment results, but The New York Times sadly doesn’t note how many precincts are reporting for that measure.
As a reminder, here’s how our primary forecast sees the race going forward depending on different results in Nevada. A big Sanders win today would make him nearly a 1-in-2 favorite to win a majority of pledged delegates.
How Nevada could affect the nomination odds, Part II
Chances of winning a majority of all pledged delegates based on winner, margin of victory and second-place finisher in Nevada, according to FiveThirtyEight’s forecast
| CHANCE OF WINNING MAJORITY OF DELEGATES OVERALL | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | NV margin | 2nd | Sanders | Biden | Bloom. | Buttig. | Warren | None |
| Sanders | large | Biden | 45% | 9% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 37% |
| Sanders | large | Buttigieg | 47 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 38 |
| Sanders | large | Klobuchar | 45 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 38 |
| Sanders | large | Steyer | 47 | 7 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 33 |
| Sanders | large | Warren | 43 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 41 |
| Sanders | medium | Biden | 37 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 44 |
| Sanders | medium | Buttigieg | 37 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 45 |
| Sanders | medium | Klobuchar | 40 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 48 |
| Sanders | medium | Steyer | 28 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 50 |
| Sanders | medium | Warren | 42 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 41 |
| Sanders | narrow | Buttigieg | 35 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 45 |
| Sanders | narrow | Biden | 29 | 15 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 44 |
| Sanders | narrow | Warren | 30 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 44 |
| Buttigieg | medium | Sanders | 27 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 51 |
| Buttigieg | narrow | Sanders | 28 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 51 |
| Biden | medium | Sanders | 20 | 20 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 48 |
| Biden | narrow | Sanders | 18 | 26 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 48 |
Nate, I wonder if that’s partially because Nevada elections typically happen on a Tuesday, whereas today is Saturday. Can’t blame the driver for being confused.