What Went Down In The 2020 Nevada Caucuses

The other thing about Warren is that if it looks like a contested convention might be on the horizon, she might try to stick around as a consensus candidate. Back in October, Julia and I found that a large share of other candidates’ supporters were also considering Warren. But that was at the high point of her support; now, while Morning Consult, for instance, has her as the top second choice for Sanders supporters, she’s not quite as popular with other candidates’ supporters.

Earlier today, the Nevada Democratic Party reported that more than 10,000 Nevadans registered as Democrats for the first time during early voting. This is notable because one of the reasons Harry Reid initially pushed so hard for Nevada to have an early-calendar caucus was to encourage the growth of the state party. But with so many new Democrats registering during early vote (where you simply cast a ballot), it makes me wonder if a primary would be just as effective at achieving that goal.

It’s not clear to me how eager Warren would be to stay in the race if her chances of winning seem remote. Candidates differ a lot on what they do in that circumstance. The calculation could be more complicated this year because of the possibility of a contested convention.