What Went Down In The 2020 Nevada Caucuses

Earlier today, the Nevada Democratic Party reported that more than 10,000 Nevadans registered as Democrats for the first time during early voting. This is notable because one of the reasons Harry Reid initially pushed so hard for Nevada to have an early-calendar caucus was to encourage the growth of the state party. But with so many new Democrats registering during early vote (where you simply cast a ballot), it makes me wonder if a primary would be just as effective at achieving that goal.

It’s not clear to me how eager Warren would be to stay in the race if her chances of winning seem remote. Candidates differ a lot on what they do in that circumstance. The calculation could be more complicated this year because of the possibility of a contested convention.

The Fox News poll of Nevada, published on Jan. 8, had Biden 23, Sanders 17, Steyer/Warren 12, Buttigieg 6, Klobuchar 2. What a difference seven weeks makes, as it seems likely that Sanders wins today. That poll got a lot of buzz for Steyer being so high. Steyer might get to double digits in Nevada — but I think we all correctly suspected he would not, say, win this state and that he was surging in part because none of the other candidates were on the ground here. Steyer of course has also invested heavily in South Carolina, and that seems like the place where he could maybe get into the 20s.