What Went Down In The 2020 Nevada Caucuses

The Fox News poll of Nevada, published on Jan. 8, had Biden 23, Sanders 17, Steyer/Warren 12, Buttigieg 6, Klobuchar 2. What a difference seven weeks makes, as it seems likely that Sanders wins today. That poll got a lot of buzz for Steyer being so high. Steyer might get to double digits in Nevada — but I think we all correctly suspected he would not, say, win this state and that he was surging in part because none of the other candidates were on the ground here. Steyer of course has also invested heavily in South Carolina, and that seems like the place where he could maybe get into the 20s.

Building on what Clare said earlier about the Latino vote: It’s looking like Sanders is going to win that vote running away. Historically, Latino voters haven’t really coalesced around a single candidate in presidential primaries in the way that, for example, black voters have. Perry has written about this. Part of the power of the black vote is how unified it has been.

If Latino voters vote as a more unified bloc … they could wield far more political power in these races.

Nate, I think any connection Warren has to Oklahoma is pretty tenuous at this point. Our forecast only gives her a 1 in 25 chance of winning there.