What Went Down In The 2020 Nevada Caucuses

When we partnered with Ipsos to ask that same question about whether voters prefer a candidate who can beat Trump over one who agrees with them on the issues, we consistently got the same ratio. About 2/3 voters are putting the win first.

According to preliminary entrance polls, about two-thirds of caucusgoers preferred having a nominee who could defeat Trump in November while one-third said they’d rather have a nominee who they agree with on major issues. Among those prioritizing electability, Sanders and Biden are running fairly close, but Sanders is crushing it with those who prioritized agreement on the issues.

According to preliminary entrance polling, just 15 percent of Nevada caucusgoers say they decided on whom to support in the last few days — that’s in line with previous caucuses here, but it’s quite different from the 51 percent who decided in the last few days in New Hampshire. Warren is doing a bit better among first preferences among this late-decider group than earlier deciders, perhaps reflecting her debate performance (this poll didn’t ask about whether the debate mattered to voters’ decision), but the group itself just isn’t that big.