What Went Down In The 2020 Nevada Caucuses

This is an idle thought that’s still forming, but I wonder if Sanders’s likely win and his campaign’s focus on Latino voters in the state will change the way that Democratic campaigns approach going after the Latino community in the future. It’s been historically more difficult to court that community because the parties haven’t put a lot of energy into bilingual campaign efforts. But this election feels different on that front.

Sarah, our model would have Sanders as a heavy favorite overall if he wins South Carolina, but the race would not be over, necessarily, if, say, he won with 22 percent of the vote with a number of candidates closely bunched together behind him. There would still be the chance that things could change once the field winnowed down, or the chance that everyone stayed in and we went to a contested convention.

Based on preliminary entrance polls, one of Sanders’s strengths is definitely his support among Latino voters. Making up 18 percent of the electorate based on what we know so far, they are overwhelmingly backing him — far more than Biden, Buttigieg and the rest of the field.