What Went Down In The 2020 Nevada Caucuses

Nathaniel Rakich

Yeah, Kaleigh, and here’s another precinct where Warren’s vote share jumped from the early vote. Early voters went 31 percent for Sanders, 24 percent for Biden, 13 percent for Buttigieg, 11 percent for Steyer, 10 percent for Warren, and 8 percent for Klobuchar. Today’s voters voted Warren 29 percent, Sanders 25 percent, Biden 21 percent, Buttigieg 17 percent and Klobuchar and Steyer 4 percent each.

First alignment totals here:

Biden: (5 IP + 19 EV) 24
Buttigieg: (4 IP + 10 EV) 14
Klobuchar: (1 IP + 6 EV) 7
Sanders: (6 IP + 25 EV) 31
Steyer: (1 IP + 9 EV) 10
Warren: (7 IP + 8 EV) 15
Yang: (0 IP + 3 EV) 3

Only Biden and Sanders are viable here, with a threshold of 16.
— Megan Messerly (@meganmesserly) February 22, 2020

Kaleigh Rogers

3:58 pm

It will be interesting to see if there are notable differences in preference between early voters and in-person caucusgoers. Here’s an example, from that same Sparks High School precinct that Nathaniel mentioned before:

Warren gets a big jump after early vote realignment, jumping from 6 to 23. Bernie jumped from 27 to 34 #NevadaCaucus
— Colton Lochhead (@ColtonLochhead) February 22, 2020

Nate Silver

3:52 pm

It seems clear that Sanders is having a good day overall, but he picked up very few of the Warren/Steyer realigners at this caucus site, which is interesting. He also picked up few realigned voters in Iowa.

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