What Went Down In The 2020 Nevada Caucuses

I should close the circle on that Sparks High School precinct where Sanders was initially the only viable candidate: Warren’s group stuck together and was able to add a person on realignment to become viable. So Sanders was not the only viable candidate in this precinct after all.

Like in Iowa, the Nevada caucuses are somewhat weighted toward rural areas because each precinct is guaranteed at least one county delegate, and the county delegate percentages are what will decide how many national delegates candidates get. I took a look at the county delegate counts and compared them to the number of registered Democrats, which is what determines the number of county delegates in each precinct. Clark County (Las Vegas) has 76.3 percent of the Democratic registered voters but 74.4 percent of the county delegates. That’s not a huge difference, but it speaks to the fact that some of the lightly-populated counties in the state have a slightly larger share of county delegates than share of registered Democrats.

Members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints make up about 2 percent of the country, but the share is about double that in Nevada. In their more recent history, Mormons have voted overwhelmingly for Republicans, but a new report from FiveThirtyEight contributor Daniel Cox finds members of the church divided on Trump.

According to the report, 71 percent of white evangelical Protestants (another Republican stronghold) approve of the job Trump is doing as president; more than half of those say they “strongly” approve. But among Mormons, only 55 percent say they approve, and only 25 percent said they “strongly” approve. A full 40 percent said they disapprove, 23 percent strongly so. In particular, Mormons deviate from other religious conservatives on immigration; 37 percent of Mormons support a policy that would deport all undocumented immigrants, compared with 55 percent of white evangelical Protestants.

Depending on whom the Democrats nominate, Mormons in Nevada might throw their support behind him or her, given their disapproval of Trump, or they might just stay home. Given that Hillary Clinton won Nevada by just 2.4 percentage points in 2016, that could make a difference.