What Went Down In The 2020 Nevada Caucuses

Members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints make up about 2 percent of the country, but the share is about double that in Nevada. In their more recent history, Mormons have voted overwhelmingly for Republicans, but a new report from FiveThirtyEight contributor Daniel Cox finds members of the church divided on Trump.

According to the report, 71 percent of white evangelical Protestants (another Republican stronghold) approve of the job Trump is doing as president; more than half of those say they “strongly” approve. But among Mormons, only 55 percent say they approve, and only 25 percent said they “strongly” approve. A full 40 percent said they disapprove, 23 percent strongly so. In particular, Mormons deviate from other religious conservatives on immigration; 37 percent of Mormons support a policy that would deport all undocumented immigrants, compared with 55 percent of white evangelical Protestants.

Depending on whom the Democrats nominate, Mormons in Nevada might throw their support behind him or her, given their disapproval of Trump, or they might just stay home. Given that Hillary Clinton won Nevada by just 2.4 percentage points in 2016, that could make a difference.

The Nevada Democratic Party is having its volunteers sign nondisclosure agreements. I know that this was also the case for some people who participated in the administration of the Iowa Caucuses, but obviously NDAs take on a more freighted meaning today given what a disaster the Iowa voting was. As a member of the media, I have to say, it never feels great to hear that a political party is trying to preemptively muzzle people who might be able to provide voters transparency on what goes well and what doesn’t.

One thing we’ve been mulling over here at FiveThirtyEight is whether Warren’s fiery debate performance on Wednesday might have shaken up the race in Nevada. So on Friday, I went to the Clark County Government Center to check out Warren’s last event before the caucuses on Saturday.

The sun was just beginning to set over the Las Vegas valley as I arrived. The center’s amphitheater was filling with Warren supporters and those curious to see her speak. And sure enough, Warren’s performance at Wednesday night’s debate was the topic of conversation.

Clark County commissioner Justin Jones, who spoke at the event, had previously endorsed Kamala Harris, but said he decided to publicly support Warren after the debate, because “she kicked butt.” Former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julián Castro, who has also endorsed Warren, took the stage after Jones and energized the crowd by praising Warren for how she went after Bloomberg during the debate: “You saw how she handled Mayor Bloomberg.”

Warren started off the evening lighthearted with jokes about her personal life but then waded into heavier topics like the housing crash and corruption. Nevada was one of the states hit particularly hard by the 2008 housing crisis, and Warren mentioned the story of Alfred Estrada, a man who lost his home in Nevada and whose story encouraged Warren to form the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

Warren also made digs at Bloomberg regarding his previous remarks about minorities and at Sanders for his refusal to vote to end the filibuster in the Senate. She then fielded a few questions from the crowd before taking selfies with supporters. One came from a woman named Amy who was concerned about people thinking women couldn’t win elections. In response, Warren talked about defeating a popular Repbulican incumbent as a political newcomer in 2012. And in response to whether a woman can beat Trump, she said, “I don’t know about a woman, but Elizabeth Warren can beat Donald Trump.” Someone in the crowd said, “atta girl!”