What Went Down In The 2020 Nevada Caucuses
Decision: How 2020 caucusgoers compare to past years
Breakdown by decision time of Nevada caucusgoers in 2020 and recent presidential election cycles, according to preliminary entrance poll data
| When did they decide? | 2008 | 2016 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Within the last three days | 18% | 13% | 15% |
| Before that | 81 | 86 | 84 |
Early voters are more likely to be firmly committed to a candidate. If you’re undecided, you wait, in other words. So I don’t think there are likely to be that many voters in the bucket that the Warren folks are describing. With that said, the timing of the debate wasn’t ideal given the popularity of early voting here.
In preliminary entrance polls, 82 percent of respondents say they’re confident that the votes cast in the Nevada caucuses will be counted correctly, while 16 percent say they aren’t confident. There’s a notable establishment/anti-establishment split here: Sanders is doing a lot better among the group that says they aren’t confident in the process, while almost all of the other candidates are doing better among the confident group.